Stock market keeps rising, but anxiety looms

Weekly Review: MAAD & CPFL Analysis

Conclusion

While we have discussed the movement of the S&P 500 index from March 2009 to May 2011 as it relates to the advance in the index from May 2011 to date (106% vs. 13% if an investor had used March 2009 and May 2011 as two separate investment points), there is another way to look at those gains. If the S&P declines from current levels by 11.6% it will erase all the profit from that May 2, 2011 high at 1370.58.

Although it may be true that the levels of market euphoria, a potentially negative omen, are not present in this current market to the same extent they were evident in 2000 and again in 2007, it’s also true the market over the past four years has been more institutionally driven with less public participation evident. Since the 2008/2009 crash many private investors have simply stayed away from the market. Some would argue this market is still a “Buy” until the public gets back in and is fully invested again. The other side of that argument is that the public will not be buying again en masse this time around and that our indicators have been negative for nearly two years for the right reasons.

MAAD daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL daily data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

1-25-13

15

5

1-25-13

45897

12776

1-28-13

10

9

1-28-13

9419

33969

1-29-13

12

8

1-29-13

12384

7416

1-30-13

10

10

1-30-13

13203

10238

1-31-13

6

14

1-31-13

4509

11894

2-1-13

17

3

2-1-13

17057

14662

2-4-13

4

16

2-4-13

18445

18181

2-5-13

17

3

2-5-13

25202

18738

2-6-13

11

9

2-6-13

22708

6372

2-7-13

6

14

2-7-13

10706

8964

2-8-13

12

8

2-8-13

11757

10102

2-11-13

15

5

2-11-13

7341

9714

2-12-13

14

6

2-12-13

14035

10674

2-13-13

9

11

2-13-13

22996

19130

2-14-13

10

9

2-14-13

22966

6378

2-15-13

6

13

2-15-13

39599

8680

2-18-13

Holiday

 

2-18-13

Holiday

 

2-19-13

15

5

2-19-13

59240

9448

2-20-13

1

19

2-20-13

9641

28039

2-21-13

3

17

2-21-13

26937

21352

2-22-13

16

4

2-22-13

13544

8585

2-25-13

2

18

2-25-13

10545

52295

2-26-13

14

5

2-26-13

15739

18237

2-27-13

17

3

2-27-13

24868

14009

2-28-13

7

13

2-28-13

26456

11302

3-1-13

15

4

3-1-13

18832

14308

3-4-13

15

4

3-4-13

8503

8242

3-5-13

17

3

3-5-13

23430

23985

3-6-13

15

5

3-6-13

19515

8208

3-7-13

14

6

3-7-13

14096

18490

3-8-13

10

9

3-8-13

34830

8963

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

8-17-12

11

9

8-17-12

168381

34193

8-24-12

5

14

8-24-12

61567

91299

8-31-12

4

16

8-31-12

27713

56889

9-7-12

17

2

9-7-12

192729

30202

9-14-12

17

3

9-14-12

295058

62406

9-21-12

4

16

9-21-21

140898

41443

9-28-12

6

14

9-28-28

68066

104869

10-5-12

15

5

10-5-12

82790

46425

10-12-12

4

16

10-12-12

23119

203431

10-19-12

10

10

10-19-12

40632

219576

10-26-12

6

14

10-26-12

43539

151159

11-2-12

15

5

11-2-12

31681

39436

11-9-12

0

20

11-9-12

51223

261506

11-16-12

3

17

11-16-12

104817

333252

11-23-12

18

2

11-23-12

136708

34280

11-30-12

12

8

11-30-12

152468

59828

12-7-12

15

5

12-7-12

53407

49271

12-14-12

10

10

12-14-12

51445

98445

12-21-12

14

6

12-21-12

216650

126720

12-28-12

5

15

12-28-12

19431

48587

1-4-13

19

1

1-4-13

142605

25100

1-11-13

13

5

1-11-13

90566

22250

1-18-13

11

8

1-18-13

75858

37446

1-25-13

12

7

1-25-13

67580

24811

2-1-13

14

6

2-1-13

47418

27737

2-8-13

10

9

2-8-13

79635

31633

2-15-13

11

9

2-15-13

81129

33755

2-22-13

4

16

2-22-13

92498

42338

3-1-13

7

12

3-1-13

84043

45510

3-8-13

19

1

3-8-13

99617

35462

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

 

 

<< Page 5 of 5
About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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