Say goodbye to Mr. Shirakawa and a strong Japanese yen

The oddball of central banking

Shirakawa was considered as something of an oddity in central banking and financial circles and was out of tune with the more proactive approach epitomised by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke of creating vast amounts of new money to counter deflation, to restart economic growth and to fight unemployment.

However, on reflection Shirakawa's arguments for pursuing a less aggressive monetary policy are rooted in some quite sound arguments. The way he saw it Japan's major problem was its ageing population. It's not a particularly exciting argument, but it is a compelling one that deserves some consideration.

Nearly a quarter of Japan's 128 million population is over the age of 65 and by 2060 that is forecast to rise to 40% with the population shrinking to 87 million people. Simple logic dictates that with household consumption comprising 60% of the economy, there is bound to be less growth and even deflation as the BoJ has often noted in its own research. People who are over 65 tend to spend less and their consumption patterns change.

Interestingly, Shirakawa also warned that the West now faces the same demographic time bomb that went off in Japan around two decades ago. Unfortunately, currency debasement is unlikely to turn the clock back on the consumption patterns of older people, something Shirakawa appeared to understand better than the rest of the central banking community.

The effects of demographic decline cannot be sustainably reversed by quantitative easing and infrastructure projects. A more sinister interpretation for the enthusiasm for aggressive QE is to erode high debt levels through inflation as sustained economic growth is not happening.

Until the next devaluation

If JPY resumes its rapid decline it is bound to stoke more tensions with Japan's trading partners and rhetoric over currency wars. But in the short-term, devaluation does reap rewards. U.S. exports have been helped in the past by a weaker USD. Even in the U.K. with its ballooning current account deficit, a weaker GBP has helped exports grow outside Europe. The problem is its oversized financial sector — a sunset industry — and over-reliance on Europe.

Japan is now hoping to get some of that benefit as well, but it is likely to be temporary until another major trading country decides to weaken its currency in what is a zero sum game. The USD's trade weighted index (USD value versus basket of other currencies) has been edging up recently — it's quite possible that the Fed will seek to halt any long-term rally in the USD, and if it does that will undermine the trade benefits gained by other countries from devaluing their currencies. But in the meantime, it sets up some nice trends for momentum and trend traders to take advantage of. 

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About the Author
Justin Pugsley

Justin Pugsley is the forex and gold markets analyst for New Zealand-based trading platform provider MahiFX. He is a keen student of markets, economics and history. Prior to working with MahiFX, Justin worked for a number of leading media organisations such as Thomson-Reuters and Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal.

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