Natural gas sees selling as $3.40 targeted

Daily Market Analysis for Thursday 03/07/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/06/13 @ 111.94. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/20/13 @ 115.60. Downside Targets = 111.07 – 110.67.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 111.94.
    • April Brent Crude started out higher in Wednesday’s overnight session but fell lower on larger than expected inventory builds before rebounding in the latter half of trading to close back near the day’s midpoint.
    • After holding the $111 mark for the most part, Brent could be looking at a short-term move back to the upside to threaten the $115 mark and the previous confirmed top.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.64
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.57
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.89

WTI Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 03/06/13 @ 91.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/04/13 @ 96.17. Downside Targets = 91.69 – 90.30.
  • VRCB-OVB combo generated on Wednesday. Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 91.00.
    • April WTI Crude Oil reclaimed some lost ground in the latter half of trading on Wednesday following a larger than expected supply injection as it found solace in a mostly positive Beige Book report and technical buying around the $90 handle.
    • Look for another test of $90 on Thursday and then a move back to new weekly highs heading into the close of the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.39
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.20
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.69

Natural Gas (April ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 3.337. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 02/22/13 @ 3.349. Upside Targets = 3.447 – 3.511.
  • Close < Low of High day generated on Wednesday.
    • April Natural Gas followed through on Tuesday afternoon’s report as an early rally fizzled just above Monday’s high while dropping down to close just off the session’s low.
    • Look for continued selling to come in ahead of Thursday’s storage report and the market to test $3.40.
  • Projected Daily Range: .101
  • Projected Weekly Range: .206
  • Projected Monthly Range: .504
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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