Bonds lower as jobs data better than expected

Financials: June Bonds are currently 12 lower at 142’15 and the 10 Yr. Note 5 lower at 131’02. Yesterday’s ADP Private Sector Jobs Report showed an increase of 198,000 jobs vs. expectations of 175,000. This morning’s Weekly Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 7,000 vs. expectations for an increase of 3,000. Trade balance showed -44.45 billion dollars vs. expectations of 43.00 billion. Estimates for tomorrow mornings Monthly Employment are for an increase in non-farm payrolls of 160-170,000. Near term support of 143’05 has been penetrated. I recommend taking profits on all long 10 Yr. Note/short Bonds or long 5 Yr. Note/ short 10 Yr. Note spreads. If you are long out-of-the-money puts and/or put spreads, hold.

Grains: May Corn is currently unchanged at 688’4, May Beans 2’0 higher at 1468’0, May Wheat 2’2 higher at 685’6 and Dec. Wheat 3’0 higher at 714’6. We remain long out-of-the-money call spreads in Dec. Wheat. The Grains remain under pressure as the Dollar remains strong and exports remain sluggish despite tight near term supplies. We remain patient awaiting a buying opportunity in May Corn below the 675’0 level and Dec. Corn below 528’0.

Cattle: Apr. LC are currently 35 lower at 128.45 and Apr. FC 45 lower at 141.80. This comes after a sharply lower day on Wed. as the market sold off over concerns about the possibility of the furloughing of Meat Inspectors because of budget cuts. The conventional wisdom at this time is if there is a slow down in inspections, marketing will be slowed and cattle will back up. We remain negative.

Silver: May Silver is currently $0.17 higher at $28.97 and Apr. Gold is $9.00 higher at $1,584.00. We continue to hold a small long position in Silver. If you went long Apr. Gold in the $1,568.00 area (see Report dated 3/5/2013) take profits.

S&Ps: Mar. S&Ps are currently 4.00 higher at 1543.00. Treat as a trading affair between 1526.00 and 1545.00. I continue to hold some inexpensive out-of-the-money puts for Mar. expiration.

Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is 74 higher at 1.3070, the Swiss 46 higher at 1.0600, the Yen 55 lower at 1.0577 and the Pound 3 higher at 1.5043. I am currently on the sidelines. Trends remain down and I will be looking at further sharp rallies as selling opportunities.

About the Author
Marc Nemenoff

Mr. Nemenoff is a 40-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Over the years he grew to become an independent member of the exchange and spent many years as a trader, market maker, lecturer, and committee member. Since 2004 Marc has been a senior broker and analyst handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers in addition to institutional traders. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets that includes his own perspective on market direction. Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental and is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy. You can contact Marc by phone at (888) 908-4310 or by email at mnemenoff@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus