Major stock indexes near new highs, others lag

Stock market chart, technical analysis

 Market Snapshot for session ending 3-4-13

Market Overview – What We Know:

-- Despite overnight losses Sunday in S&P Emini futures contract, all major indexes rallied to post small gains Monday. Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at highest level since March 2009 and moved even closer to all-time closing high (14164.53) hit October 9, 2007.
-- Market volume declined 8% compared to last Friday’s levels.
-- Strength in S&P 500 Monday caused index to move above upper edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1522.69) to give more positive flavor to short-term trend. Given fact short-term Momentum and our Trading Oscillators remain slightly negative or at “Neutral,” however, positive action relative to price channel leaves signal tentative.
-- Nothing but new high above February 19 intraday and closing high (1530.94) in S&P will re-assert Intermediate Cycle uptrend.
-- NASDAQ Composite and Value Line index remain negative on Minor Cycle relative to price channels, Momentum, and Trading Oscillators.
-- Daily MAAD was positive by 15 to 4 Monday and rallied to new short-term high to eclipse February 19 short-term high. Indicator continues to hold below March 20, 2012 intermediate resistance peak. Daily MAAD Ratio was just above “Neutral” at 1.14.
-- Daily CPFL slightly better than “Neutral” Monday at 1.03 to 1. Indicator remains below short-term high created February 19. Daily CPFL Ratio was just above ”Neutral” at  1.15.

Market Overview – What We Think:

-- Monday’s marginal gains, strength in S&P 500 back above 10-Day Price Channel, and threat by Dow 30 to make new all-time closing high has given market decidedly more positive flavor with suggestion Intermediate Cycle uptrend begun November 16 could continue.

-- S&P must rally above February 19 closing and intraday high (1530.94) to get in synch with Dow 30, but there is still fact S&P must get above all-time closing high (1565.15) made October 9, 2007 to confirm Dow 30 and Dow 20.
-- There is also fact NASDAQ Composite and Value Line indexes appear to be less enthusiastic about upside prospects than do Dow and S&P and are not as well positioned to make highest highs since March 2009 as are “bluer” chips.
-- While we were looking for more of a “correction” on Minor Cycle, it’s possible pullback and recovery since February 19 highs will account, in retrospect, for all near-term weakness we might get, given fact Intermediate Cycle remains positive and even though it is historically “Overbought.”
-- As a consequence, until larger cycles reverse to negative, all Minor Cycle pullbacks must be regarded as just that – short-term pullbacks within context of larger cycle positives even though longer-term negative indicator divergences remain intact.