Stock indexes threaten new highs but indicators do not

Weekly Review: MAAD & CPFL Analysis

Conclusion

The bulls maintained their marginal edge last week to keep prices recovering following the February 26 intraday lows (1485.01—S&P 500). What is now at stake, however, is not only the viability and sustenance of the short-term trend to the extent it must be perpetuated in ALL of the major indexes with the February 19 intraday highs exceeded (1530.94—S&P 500), but there must also be a modicum of indicator confirmation even though enthusiasm in the latter is problematic.

This bull market is now into its fourth year as of this week. The lion’s share of the gains in that trend occurred during the first two years plus a couple of months. Since then the S&P alone has only advanced about 1/10th as much as it rallied from March 2009 through early May 2011. To change that rate of return in favor of the bulls the only way we can see the underpinnings of a new uptrend developing is if ALL of our key indicators get in synch with pricing and move toward new highs. Unfortunately, we continue to think such a change is a good bet.

MAAD daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL daily data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

1-17-13

11

8

1-17-13

17630

15208

1-18-13

12

7

1-18-13

30618

15985

1-21-13

Holiday

 

1-21-13

Holiday

 

1-22-13

11

9

1-22-13

13881

14187

1-23-13

8

12

1-23-13

11642

7175

1-24-13

11

9

1-24-13

12868

13706

1-25-13

15

5

1-25-13

45897

12776

1-28-13

10

9

1-28-13

9419

33969

1-29-13

12

8

1-29-13

12384

7416

1-30-13

10

10

1-30-13

13203

10238

1-31-13

6

14

1-31-13

4509

11894

2-1-13

17

3

2-1-13

17057

14662

2-4-13

4

16

2-4-13

18445

18181

2-5-13

17

3

2-5-13

25202

18738

2-6-13

11

9

2-6-13

22708

6372

2-7-13

6

14

2-7-13

10706

8964

2-8-13

12

8

2-8-13

11757

10102

2-11-13

15

5

2-11-13

7341

9714

2-12-13

14

6

2-12-13

14035

10674

2-13-13

9

11

2-13-13

22996

19130

2-14-13

10

9

2-14-13

22966

6378

2-15-13

6

13

2-15-13

39599

8680

2-18-13

Holiday

 

2-18-13

Holiday

 

2-19-13

15

5

2-19-13

59240

9448

2-20-13

1

19

2-20-13

9641

28039

2-21-13

3

17

2-21-13

26937

21352

2-22-13

16

4

2-22-13

13544

8585

2-25-13

2

18

2-25-13

10545

52295

2-26-13

14

5

2-26-13

15739

18237

2-27-13

17

3

2-27-13

24868

14009

2-28-13

7

13

2-28-13

26456

11302

3-1-13

15

4

3-1-13

18832

14308

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

8-10-12

18

2

8-10-12

127913

51441

8-17-12

11

9

8-17-12

168381

34193

8-24-12

5

14

8-24-12

61567

91299

8-31-12

4

16

8-31-12

27713

56889

9-7-12

17

2

9-7-12

192729

30202

9-14-12

17

3

9-14-12

295058

62406

9-21-12

4

16

9-21-21

140898

41443

9-28-12

6

14

9-28-28

68066

104869

10-5-12

15

5

10-5-12

82790

46425

10-12-12

4

16

10-12-12

23119

203431

10-19-12

10

10

10-19-12

40632

219576

10-26-12

6

14

10-26-12

43539

151159

11-2-12

15

5

11-2-12

31681

39436

11-9-12

0

20

11-9-12

51223

261506

11-16-12

3

17

11-16-12

104817

333252

11-23-12

18

2

11-23-12

136708

34280

11-30-12

12

8

11-30-12

152468

59828

12-7-12

15

5

12-7-12

53407

49271

12-14-12

10

10

12-14-12

51445

98445

12-21-12

14

6

12-21-12

216650

126720

12-28-12

5

15

12-28-12

19431

48587

1-4-13

19

1

1-4-13

142605

25100

1-11-13

13

5

1-11-13

90566

22250

1-18-13

11

8

1-18-13

75858

37446

1-25-13

12

7

1-25-13

67580

24811

2-1-13

14

6

2-1-13

47418

27737

2-8-13

10

9

2-8-13

79635

31633

2-15-13

11

9

2-15-13

81129

33755

2-22-13

4

16

2-22-13

92498

42338

3-1-13

7

12

3-1-13

84043

45510

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

<< Page 4 of 4
About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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