Natural gas fails to close above $3.50

Daily Market Analysis for Monday 03/04/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 116.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/20/13 @ 115.60. Downside Targets = 111.07 – 110.67.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 109.82.
  • April Brent Crude dropped lower again on Friday for the fourth consecutive trading session to again close below the daily SBB and settling just below my initial support zone prices listed throughout last week’s reports at $110.67 – $111.07.
  • As Brent has now entered the primary IT support prices from the $110-$106 levels it should find some consolidating price action in the next few weeks around the November ’12 trading zone.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.65
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.57
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.89

WTI Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/13/13 @ 97.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/04/13 @ 96.17. Downside Targets = 91.69 – 90.30.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 90.04.
  • April WTI Crude Oil dropped sharply lower on Friday, outpacing Brent for the first time all week while making new lows for the year in the process.
  • Look for WTI to continue lower in the coming weeks as it threatens the $87 mark as ST stochastic’s are quickly approaching oversold levels not seen since the November lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.58
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.20
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.69

Natural Gas (April ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 3.337. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 02/22/13 @ 3.349. Upside Targets = 3.447 – 3.511.
  • April Natural Gas settled lower on Friday as it was once again unable to sustain gains above $3.50 while closing in the lower 20% of the day’s trading range.
  • Look for another push higher in early trading on Monday above $3.50 before faltering and dropping to fill the weekly close gap still left at $3.349
  • Projected Daily Range: .114
  • Projected Weekly Range: .206
  • Projected Monthly Range: .504
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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