General Comments: Futures were a little higher Friday after trading a little lower much of the session. Speculators were seen on both sides of the market as they sold early and bought later. It still seems that New York is trying to form a low in this area. Some support came from news that Colombia Coffee farmers will not deliver as they seek higher prices for crops and some support came from even more reports of severe rust damage in Central America. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it is causing are getting noticed, as is news that the rust is now reported in Peru. For now, it looks like Central America could lose at least 20% of the total crop this year and more next year. Losses next year could be 30% or more of the crop. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting drier weather for the developing crop. There is some talk the drier weather could stress trees. Production ideas remain big there. Vietnam producers there talk about the potential for 25% crop losses due to prolonged drought in the Central Highlands. India might lose 5% of its Robusta crop due to unseasonal rains at harvest time. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.692 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 132.49 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 1 contract was delivered today against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are 102 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 141.00, 137.00, and 134.00 May, and resistance is at 145.00, 147.00, and 149.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2145 May. Support is at 2090, 2070, and 2040 May, and resistance is at 2130, 2140, and 2170 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 180.00, 178.00, and 177.00 September, and resistance is at 183.00, 185.00, and 187.00 September.
General Comments: Futures were mixed to higher Friday. Wire reports that Texas could plant 25% less are to Cotton was very supportive as the state produces half the US crop. Bears still point to increasing certified stocks levels for reasons to be bearish. Economic data from China, the largest importer of Cotton, implied that demand from that buyer could be cut as the economy there is stalling a bit. Demand bulls noted positive exports in general and ideas of reduced planted area in the US this season as reasons to buy. The current low new crop prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. The plantings intentions report will be released at the end of the month. Texas areas should turn drier for the rest of the week after a lot of precipitation hit the growing areas over the last couple of days. Delta and Southeast areas will see some significant precipitation later in the week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average mostly below normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average below normal, but above normal starting Thursday. The USDA spot price is now 79.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.421 million bales, from 0.405 million yesterday. ICE said that 5 contracts were delivered yesterday and that total deliveries for the month are 1,475 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 86.40 and 89.00 May. Support is at 84.00, 83.80, and 83.10 May, with resistance of 86.00, 86.30, and 87.50 May.
Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures closed lower on speculative selling. Short term trends turned down with the price action on Friday. It was a cold weekend in Florida, and frosts were possible over the weekend. Some areas could have seen a freeze. Temperatures had been warm in the state until the weekend, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year returned. Crop development is reported to be far enough along that some damage or loss is possible. Some buds could have been lost and that will mean less production potential for next year if the loss is confirmed. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and light showers.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 117.00 and 109.00 May. Support is at 120.00, 118.00, and 115.00 May, with resistance at 124.00, 125.00, and 129.00 May.
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York, and lower in London. It seems that demand for White Sugar is good right now and that has supported London for now, but the overall supply of Sugar is big so the support has been limited. Chart trends in London are now up, but trends in New York are not as easy to define. But, big supplies of Sugarcane and Raw Sugar keep price trends in check, and the market remains in a sideways trend even though trends are trying to turn up. Brazil said it will increase the ethanol in its gasoline blends in May, and this could help work off a lot of the surplus production in Brazil and could tighten world balance sheets. It confirmed the move on Friday. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong. Chart patterns now show that a rally is possible, with London likely to be the leader in any rally attempt.
Overnight News: Mostly dry weather expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to below normal. ICE said Friday morning that 3,007 contracts were delivered against March Sugar 11 futures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1790, 1770, and 1740 May, and resistance is at 1860, 1875, and 1900 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 543.00 and 576.00 May. Support is at 512.00, 506.00, and 502.50 May, and resistance is at 520.00, 523.00, and 527.00 May.
General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday as the US Dollar moved higher. Market trends are still down overall, but ideas are that the market can turn higher now that the main harvest in West Africa is about over. Ideas are that current low prices should créate new demand. The weather is forecast to be warm and dry in West Africa this week. Hot and dry winds now could hurt the mid crop production and also hurt some development of the crops for next year. For now, traders expect good mid crop production from West Africa, but thios could change if hot wquinds develop in the short term. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 826 contracts. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.475 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2070, 2050, and 20430 May. Support is at 2050, 2020, and 2000 May, with resistance at 2100, 2110, and 2130 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1390 and 1365 May. Support is at 1405, 1390, and 1360 May, with resistance at 1435, 1450, and 1475 May.