Coffee finds support in reports of rust disease spreading

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed lower on speculative selling. Short term trends turned down with the price action on Friday. It was a cold weekend in Florida, and frosts were possible over the weekend. Some areas could have seen a freeze. Temperatures had been warm in the state until the weekend, and conditions are dry, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year returned. Crop development is reported to be far enough along that some damage or loss is possible. Some buds could have been lost and that will mean less production potential for next year if the loss is confirmed. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and light showers.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 117.00 and 109.00 May. Support is at 120.00, 118.00, and 115.00 May, with resistance at 124.00, 125.00, and 129.00 May.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York, and lower in London. It seems that demand for White Sugar is good right now and that has supported London for now, but the overall supply of Sugar is big so the support has been limited. Chart trends in London are now up, but trends in New York are not as easy to define. But, big supplies of Sugarcane and Raw Sugar keep price trends in check, and the market remains in a sideways trend even though trends are trying to turn up. Brazil said it will increase the ethanol in its gasoline blends in May, and this could help work off a lot of the surplus production in Brazil and could tighten world balance sheets. It confirmed the move on Friday. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong. Chart patterns now show that a rally is possible, with London likely to be the leader in any rally attempt.

Overnight News: Mostly dry weather expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to below normal. ICE said Friday morning that 3,007 contracts were delivered against March Sugar 11 futures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1790, 1770, and 1740 May, and resistance is at 1860, 1875, and 1900 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 543.00 and 576.00 May. Support is at 512.00, 506.00, and 502.50 May, and resistance is at 520.00, 523.00, and 527.00 May.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday as the US Dollar moved higher. Market trends are still down overall, but ideas are that the market can turn higher now that the main harvest in West Africa is about over. Ideas are that current low prices should créate new demand. The weather is forecast to be warm and dry in West Africa this week. Hot and dry winds now could hurt the mid crop production and also hurt some development of the crops for next year. For now, traders expect good mid crop production from West Africa, but thios could change if hot wquinds develop in the short term. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 826 contracts. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.475 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2070, 2050, and 20430 May. Support is at 2050, 2020, and 2000 May, with resistance at 2100, 2110, and 2130 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1390 and 1365 May. Support is at 1405, 1390, and 1360 May, with resistance at 1435, 1450, and 1475 May.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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