FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher on speculative buying. Futures are still trading near the upper end of the winter trading range. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry again, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year returned. Forecasts now call for colder weather to hit the state later this week. It is possible that some areas will see freezing temperatures, and crop development is reported to be far enough along that some damage or loss is possible. Our private forecast calls for potentially freezing temperatures n many Florida growing areas early next week. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. Harvest is continuing.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 120.00 May, with resistance at 130.50, 132.00, and 134.00 May.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little lower yesterday. Wire reports that Texas could plant 25% less are to Cotton was very supportive as the state produces half the US crop. Bears still point to increasing certified stocks levels for reasons to be bearish. Demand bulls noted positive economic data in general and ideas of reduced planted area in the US this season as reasons to buy. The current low new crop prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Texas areas should turn drier for the rest of the week after a lot of precipitation hit the growing areas over the last couple of days. Delta and Southeast areas will see some significant precipitation later in the week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average below normal, but above normal on Sunday. The USDA spot price is now 75.84 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.381 million bales, from 0.364 million yesterday. ICE said that 53 contracts were delivered yesterday and that total deliveries for the month are 1,309 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 152,900 bales this year and 80,800 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 24,700 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 84.00, 83.80, and 83.40 May, with resistance of 85.25, 85.55, and 86.30 May.
Next page: Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa
Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com. Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.About the Author
