Natural gas turns lower on warm weather forecast

Daily Market Analysis for Thursday 02/28/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 116.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/20/13 @ 115.60. Downside Targets = 113.47 – 112.27.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 111.65.
  • April Brent Crude dropped lower on Wednesday to settle below the daily SBB for the first time in more than three months after trading to within $0.60 of the topside of my initial support zone listed in Tuesday evening’s report.
  • Look for a volatility pop higher on Thursday as the market is incredibly oversold intraweek as it should settle back above $113.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.06
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.94
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.75

WTI Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/13/13 @ 97.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/04/13 @ 96.17. Downside Targets = 95.24 – 94.39.
  • Inside compression day generated on Wednesday.
  • April WTI Crude Oil traded within a thin range on Wednesday as downside pressures were offset by a weak USD and a heavy risk on session.
  • Should WTI close above Tuesday’s high of 93.44 on Thursday, it will confirm a ST bottom in the market and signal a possible push higher back above $96 to test the 2013 highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.64
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.42

Natural Gas (April ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 3.337. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 02/22/13 @ 3.349. Upside Targets = 3.447 – 3.511.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Wednesday after making new highs on the current move @ 3.554.
  • April Natural Gas was crushed heading into the close on Wednesday after it made new highs for the month following a stunning reversal in the weather forecast to last trade just above the $3.40 mark.
  • Look for natural gas to continue lower in early trading on Thursday ahead of the storage number as it tries to make new lows on the week and fill the weekly close gap still left in the market at $3.349.
  • Projected Daily Range: .109
  • Projected Weekly Range: .201
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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