On the shortened trading week last week the March 2013 E-mini S&P opened at 1516 and closed the week at 1514.50 reflecting a weekly doji candlestick.
The muddled Italian elections yesterday caused the market to have a large drop and we saw major chart damage. Today positive U.S. economic data and the Fed’s commitment to QE may have started to heal the chart damage. A close above 1500 would be in the right direction for bulls.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
COT Data
And looking at the COT Traders in Financial Futures, we see a bullish posture with a bear move last week. Dealers had a slight drop of net shorts now -509,562 contracts. Lev Funds also had a drop to net shorts now -385,652. And Asset Managers had a very slight drop to net longs now 898,865. We will want to see if this continues over the next few weeks, and if so a large correction could be underway.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
Fundamentals
The monthly chart below highlights the past decade, and what a decade it has been for traders who know what they are doing. You can see the two past market balloons (I like this term better than bubble). And you also will see the third one we are currently in. You can see the causes of these and what took place mid-decade to cause the worldwide “great recession.”
Click to enlarge.
On the weekly chart below you can see the strong trend with weekly ADX at 48, but dropping. Stochastics are overbought correcting from deep overbought territory.
How many of you saw the yen’s price action from open Sunday night to last night’s close? Wild, wild, ride. Might be time to get off and take profits from long-term short.
To read my market views daily you can follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/TrendsinFutures
On the shortened trading week last week the March 2013 E-mini S&P opened at 1516 and closed the week at 1514.50 reflecting a weekly doji candlestick.
