Coffee grapples with Colombian farmers looking for higher prices

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher on speculative buying as Florida weather looks to turn colder later this week. Futures are now trading near the upper end of the winter trading range. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry again, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year returned. Forecasts now call for colder weather to hit the state later this week. It is possible that some areas will see freezing temperatures, and crop development is reported to be far enough along that some damage or loss is possible. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. Harvest is continuing.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible tomorrow. Temperatures will average above normal early in the week and below normal by the end of the week.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 125.50, 123.50, and 122.00 March, with resistance at 131.00, 132.00, and 135.00 March.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed higher in consolidation trading again yesterday. Some are looking for a short covering rally in short term as a short squeeze is said to be possible in New York March contracts, and some think that rally is now starting. Supplies appear big around the world, but increasing off take could finally start to offer more stability to the prices. Brazil said it will increase the ethanol in its gasoline blends in May, and this could help work off a lot of the surplus production in Brazil and could tighten world balance sheets. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help. However, some Brazil production areas have been too dry in the south, so the production could suffer. Recent rains were beneficial, and more rain is possible in the region this week. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong. Chart patterns now show that a rally is possible, with London likely to be the leader in any rally attempt.

Overnight News: Mostly dry weather expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1780, 1760, and 1730 May, and resistance is at 1825, 1850, and 1875 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 515.00 and 528.00 May. Support is at 502.50, 499.00, and 494.00 May, and resistance is at 508.00, 512.00, and 517.00 May.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed mostly a little higher yesterday. Chart patterns are consolidating and market trends are still down overall, but ideas are that the market can turn higher now that the main harvest in West Africa is about over. The weather was warm and dry in West Africa this week, but temperaturas are not extreme. Hot and dry winds now could hurt the mid crop production and also hurt some development of the crops for next year. Speculators seemed to be the best buyers as trends started to turn up on the charts. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress, but a Little hot and dry for the mid crop and next main crop development. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 811 contracts. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.151 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2085 May, with resistance at 2155, 2190, and 2210 May. Trends in London are mixed to perhaps up with objectives of 1455 and 1490 May. Support is at 1420, 1405, and 1390 May, with resistance at 1450, 1475, and 1495 May.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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