COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday, but held some support areas. It still seems that New York is trying to form a low in this area. Some support came from news that Colombia Coffee farmers will not deliver as they seek higher prices for crops so they can cover costs and even make a small profit. Reports of rust in Central America and the production cuts that it is causing are getting more attention. For now, it looks like Central America could lose at least 20% of the total crop this year and more next year. Losses next year could be 30% or more of the crop. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting drier weather for the developing crop. There is some talk the drier weather could stress trees. Production ideas remain big there, and also remain big in Vietnam even though producers there talk about the potential for 25% crop losses. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly lower today and are about 2.681 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 132.23 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers through Wednesday, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 2 contracts were delivered today against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are 99 contracts. Vietnam exported 100,000 tons of Coffee in February, from 219,000 tons in January.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 141.00, 137.00, and 134.00 May, and resistance is at 145.00, 147.00, and 149.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2110 and 2145 May. Support is at 2070, 2040, and 2010 May, and resistance is at 2110, 2130, and 2140 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 180.00, 178.00, and 177.00 September, and resistance is at 185.00, 187.00, and 189.00 September.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday in response to weaker economic data from China and as spending cuts for the government draw nearer. The Chinese preliminary manufacturing data showed that the economy might have slowed in February, and China is the world’s largest importer of Cotton. Ideas are that the across the board cuts will hurt the economy and therefore Cotton demand. Bears point to increasing certified stocks levels for reasons to be bearish. Demand bulls noted positive economic data in general and ideas of reduced planted area in the U.S. this season as reasons to buy. The current low new crop prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Texas areas should turn drier for the rest of the week after a lot of precipitation hit the growing areas over the last couple of days. Delta and Southeast areas will see some significant precipitation later in the week.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers and rain today. Both regions should be dry for the rest of the week. Temperatures will average below normal. Texas will get dry weather after precipitation ends today. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA spot price is now 75.76 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.364 million bales, from 0.347 million yesterday. ICE said that 147 contracts were delivered yesterday and that total deliveries for the month are 1,256 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 78.85 and 74.95 May. Support is at 81.40, 80.70, and 79.75 May, with resistance of 82.80, 84.00, and 85.25 May.
Next page: Orange Juice: Sugar and Cocoa
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed higher on speculative buying as Florida weather looks to turn colder later this week. Futures are now trading near the upper end of the winter trading range. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry again, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year returned. Forecasts now call for colder weather to hit the state later this week. It is possible that some areas will see freezing temperatures, and crop development is reported to be far enough along that some damage or loss is possible. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is almost over, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. Harvest is continuing.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible tomorrow. Temperatures will average above normal early in the week and below normal by the end of the week.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 125.50, 123.50, and 122.00 March, with resistance at 131.00, 132.00, and 135.00 March.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher in consolidation trading again yesterday. Some are looking for a short covering rally in short term as a short squeeze is said to be possible in New York March contracts, and some think that rally is now starting. Supplies appear big around the world, but increasing off take could finally start to offer more stability to the prices. Brazil said it will increase the ethanol in its gasoline blends in May, and this could help work off a lot of the surplus production in Brazil and could tighten world balance sheets. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well, so the diversion into more domestic ethanol use will help. However, some Brazil production areas have been too dry in the south, so the production could suffer. Recent rains were beneficial, and more rain is possible in the region this week. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong. Chart patterns now show that a rally is possible, with London likely to be the leader in any rally attempt.
Overnight News: Mostly dry weather expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1780, 1760, and 1730 May, and resistance is at 1825, 1850, and 1875 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 515.00 and 528.00 May. Support is at 502.50, 499.00, and 494.00 May, and resistance is at 508.00, 512.00, and 517.00 May.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed mostly a little higher yesterday. Chart patterns are consolidating and market trends are still down overall, but ideas are that the market can turn higher now that the main harvest in West Africa is about over. The weather was warm and dry in West Africa this week, but temperaturas are not extreme. Hot and dry winds now could hurt the mid crop production and also hurt some development of the crops for next year. Speculators seemed to be the best buyers as trends started to turn up on the charts. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress, but a Little hot and dry for the mid crop and next main crop development. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. More buying is being noted in deferred months at this time due to smaller production ideas for the coming crops.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 811 contracts. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.151 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2085 May, with resistance at 2155, 2190, and 2210 May. Trends in London are mixed to perhaps up with objectives of 1455 and 1490 May. Support is at 1420, 1405, and 1390 May, with resistance at 1450, 1475, and 1495 May.
