Stock market weakness is crack in bullish armor

In the wake of last week’s selling that was the first noticeable market weakness since last December’s short-term lows and since selling into the November intermediate bottom, we thought it might be useful to take our own informal investor’s bull/bear poll.

”Will all those still bullish after last week’s selling please raise your hands? Okay…two, three, four. Yes, sir, the noise maker says it all! Thank you. And all of you folks in the second row with Smiley Face T-shirts. Excellent!

”Now, will all those who feel more bearish after last week’s selling please raise your hands? The gentleman in the third row in the Skull and Cross Bones biker’s jacket, is your hand up, sir? Yes. Thank you. And the lady with the Elk antlers and thumbs down baseball hat. Thank you, too….

Summing up, folks, it looks like the bulls still have an edge both in terms of market bias and sartorial elegance.”

Market Overview – What We Know:

• Major indexes closed mixed again last week. All closed within range of even, but only Dow 30 was positive.
• Market Volume declined by 13%, but that contraction was largely due to truncated trading week and national holiday last Monday.
• Short-term trend has taken on more negative tone with deterioration to negative in Momentum in Dow 30 and NASDAQ Composite, although Momentum in S&P 500 and Value Line index remains slightly positive on near term. Intermediate and Major Cycle remain positive, but historically “Overbought.”
• To suggest fully positive near-term trend, S&P must rally back above upper edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1520.69 through Monday) and must surpass 1530.94 to confirm resumption of larger Intermediate Cycle. Intermediate Cycle turns negative below lower edge of 10-Week Price Channel (1433.37 through March 1).
• Daily MAAD rallied to new short-term high last Tuesday, but was unable to better that level in subsequent market action. Daily MAAD Ratio was last “Neutral” at 1.04.
• Daily CPFL hit new short-term high last Tuesday and remains below that point. Daily CPFL Ratio was last “Overbought” at 1.73.
• Cumulative Volume (CV) in S&P 500 was last at new short to intermediate high, but continues to remain weak relative to spring 2011 high, as do NASDAQ Composite and Dow 30.

Fact is, market pricing is still leaning slightly in favor of the bullish contingent, especially on the larger cycles. While last week’s downdraft on Wednesday with negative follow-through on Thursday negated the positive short-term advance in effect since the late December lows (1398.11—S&P 500), Friday’s index price recovery erased most of the losses in the previous two sessions and left all of the major indexes within range of even on the week -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up a bit with the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Value Line index down fractionally.

Market Overview – What We Think:

• Selling last Wednesday and Thursday, and despite some recovery Friday, has left fissures in Minor Cycle that looks negative and vulnerable. Short-term trend could easily slip into more solid negative territory.
• We suspect market ascent in effect since November intermediate-term lows and most recent short-term lows in late December is unsustainable in face of “Overbought” conditions on larger Intermediate and Major Cycles and Momentum that could turn negative on all cycles with relative ease.
• In spite of bullish price bias since November lows, uptrend initiated in March 2009 is mature. In fact, upside “measured move” targets calculated on variety of cycles suggest S&P, Dow 30, NASDAQ Composite, and VAY could be within range of making long-term highs.
• So long as pricing and indicators are not in synch on upside as they were from March 2009 until May 2011, lingering doubts will persist about long-term viability of uptrend and we continue to wonder how much longer this market will be able to shake off unfavorable indicator divergences.

About the Author

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available.