Natural gas sees potentially bullish projections

Daily Market Analysis for Monday 02/25/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 116.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/20/13 @ 115.60. Downside Targets = 113.47 – 112.27.
  • Inside compression day generated on Friday.
  • April Brent Crude consolidated some of its weekly losses this past Friday in a round of short-covering but could not sustain the day’s gains as it closed back below the session’s mid-point.
  • Friday’s price action suggests a continuation of market weakness to start out this week as Brent looks to trade down to the secondary target at $112.27.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.94
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.94
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.75

WTI Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/13/13 @ 97.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/04/13 @ 96.17. Downside Targets = 95.24 – 94.39.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 92.44.
  • April WTI Crude Oil moved back to finish Friday’s session higher due to a modest short-covering rally but still had its entire day’s range trade below the daily SBB.
  • Look for WTI to follow Brent lower this week as it approaches the first IT support area nearing $91.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.20
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.64
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.42

Natural Gas (April ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 3.337. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/08/13 @ 3.332. Downside Targets = 3.249 – 3.169.
  • Inside compression day generated on Friday.
  • April Natural Gas moved back to the upside on Friday to finish the week substantially stronger on the heels of Thursday’s sell-off as a strong winter storm was moving into the East Coast.
  • Current weekly price action paints a slightly troubling picture for bears and if natty can close above the previous two week’s high, then it will signal another IT TREND REVERSAL back to bullish to set the stage for the markets last push higher for the season.
  • Projected Daily Range: .093
  • Projected Weekly Range: .201
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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