Cotton falls as government spending cuts loom


General Comments: Futures were lower again Friday on follow through selling from Thursday and as spending cuts for the government draw nearer. Ideas are that the across the board cuts will hurt the economy and therefore Cotton demand. Bears point to increasing certified stocks levels for reasons to be bearish. Demand bulls noted positive economic data in general and ideas of reduced planted area in the US this season as reasons to buy. The current low new crop prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the U.S. due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Texas areas could get some significant precipitation today and got some big snow yesterday. Delta and Southeast areas will see some significant precipitation later in the week. Ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers and rain today, and the Southeast could see precipitation tomorrow. Both regions should be dry for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be variable in the Delta and will average near to above normal in the Southeast, but all areas will turn colder by the end of the week. Texas will get dry weather after precipitation ends today. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA spot price is now 77.11 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.347 million bales, from 0.324 million yesterday. ICE said that 69 contracts were delivered yesterday and that total deliveries for the month are 1,109 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 82.80, 82.00, and 81.40 May, with resistance of 84.00, 85.25, and 85.55 May.


General Comments: Futures closed higher on speculative buying as Florida weather has turned warmer, but remains too dry. Futures are now trading near the upper end of the Winter trading range. Temperatures are warm in the state, and conditions are dry again, and talk about the potential for more fruit drop and poor development of the crop for next year returned. Recent dry weather is creating ideas that more fruit can be lost, but USDA did not really show that in its reports earlier in the month. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Bloom has been reported in groves in all production areas of the state. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. Harvest is continuing.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible tomorrow. Temperatures will average above normal early in the week and below normal by the end of the week.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 135.50, 123.50, and 122.00 March, with resistance at 131.00, 132.00, and 135.00 March.

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