Natural gas falls on warmer weather forecasts

Daily Market Analysis for Friday 02/22/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 116.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/20/13 @ 115.60. Downside Targets = 113.47 – 112.27.
  • New lows made on the current move Thursday @ 113.32.
    • April Brent Crude dropped just $0.15 below the downside price target listed in Wednesday evening’s report as risk markets saw another significantly lower day.
    • Currently Brent is extremely oversold in the short-term and should see a pop higher on Friday from a short-covering rally but face heavy resistance near $115.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.89
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.81
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.75

WTI Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/13/13 @ 97.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/04/13 @ 96.17. Downside Targets = 95.24 – 94.39.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 92.63.
    • April WTI Crude Oil traded to within $0.40 of the monthly downside target established in Wednesday evening’s report and to within less than $0.25 of the current 2013 contract lows.
    • Like Brent, expect for the oversold volatility pop in WTI on Friday to push the market back near $94.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.78
  • Projected Weekly Range: 2.88
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.42

Natural Gas (April ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 3.337. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/08/13 @ 3.332. Downside Targets = 3.249 – 3.169.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Thursday after making new highs for the week @ 3.380.
    • April Natural Gas did pop higher following the EIA storage report to make new highs for the week but was unable to sustain these gains as natty dropped sharply lower in the second half day of trading on revised weather forecasts.
    • Even though natural gas saw a lot of volatility on Thursday, it finished only 3 cents lower but should continue to decline into the weekend towards $3.25.
  • Projected Daily Range: .097
  • Projected Weekly Range: .194
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 116.27. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/20/13 @ 115.60. Downside Targets = 113.47 – 112.27.
  • New lows made on the current move Thursday @ 113.32.
    • April Brent Crude dropped just $0.15 below the downside price target listed in Wednesday evening’s report as risk markets saw another significantly lower day.
    • Currently Brent is extremely oversold in the short-term and should see a pop higher on Friday from a short-covering rally but face heavy resistance near $115.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.89
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.81
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.75

WTI Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/13/13 @ 97.80. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/04/13 @ 96.17. Downside Targets = 95.24 – 94.39.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 92.63.
    • April WTI Crude Oil traded to within $0.40 of the monthly downside target established in Wednesday evening’s report and to within less than $0.25 of the current 2013 contract lows.
    • Like Brent, expect for the oversold volatility pop in WTI on Friday to push the market back near $94.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.78
  • Projected Weekly Range: 2.88
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.42

Natural Gas (April ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 02/20/13 @ 3.337. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/08/13 @ 3.332. Downside Targets = 3.249 – 3.169.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Thursday after making new highs for the week @ 3.380.
    • April Natural Gas did pop higher following the EIA storage report to make new highs for the week but was unable to sustain these gains as natty dropped sharply lower in the second half day of trading on revised weather forecasts.
    • Even though natural gas saw a lot of volatility on Thursday, it finished only 3 cents lower but should continue to decline into the weekend towards $3.25.
  • Projected Daily Range: .097
  • Projected Weekly Range: .194
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492

 

 

 

 

 

 

About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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