Corn below $6 seen as farmers plant most since 1936

From South Dakota to Ohio, farmers are preparing to plant the most corn in almost eight decades after drought ruined record U.S. harvests predicted by the government.

“Farmers are looking for every acre possible to plant this year,” said Bill Bayliss, 67, who is expanding acreage by 10%  on land he farms in West Mansfield, Ohio, where drought conditions have disappeared. “The price is attractive, and we have seen an improvement in soil moisture.”

Corn acreage in the U.S., the world’s top grower and exporter, will be the largest since 1936, yielding an all-time high of 13.863 billion bushels at harvest should weather conditions improve, the average of 17 analysts’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey shows. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in a report today, predicted output will jump 34.85 to a record 14.53 billion. Futures contracts show traders expect corn prices to fall 195 by December to $5.585 as supply grows after the harvest, cutting costs for livestock producers and ethanol distillers.

While adverse weather the past three years prompted the USDA to back off predictions made in May before planting started, corn prices that are higher than 2012’s record average mean the crop remains profitable for farmers. The grain traded at $6.8875 in Chicago today.

“We are in a major transition to a more-abundant supply situation,” said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa, who grows corn and soybeans on his farm. “We have sent a clear price signal to the rest of the world to produce more corn.” Prices may drop below $4 a bushel in Chicago this year, he said.

Corn Slump

Corn futures that reached a record $8.49 in September have fallen 6.4 percent this month on the Chicago Board of Trade. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities is down 2.1%, while the MSCI World Index of shares fell 0.7%. Treasuries lost 0.05%, a Bank of America index shows.

Farmers have the capital needed to boost production of corn, the biggest domestic crop valued at a record $77.35 billion in 2012, as the financial condition of U.S. agriculture has never been better, government and Federal Reserve data show.

Farm income will jump to a record $128.2 billion this year, Midwest cropland values are the highest ever and the ratio of debt to equity is the lowest on record at 11.3 percent, according to the USDA. While the worst drought since the 1930s cut output by 13% last year, farmers were protected from losses by crop-insurance payouts that reached an all-time high of $14.7 billion, with more claims expected.

Page 1 of 4 >>

Copyright 2014 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome