This past week April 2013 RBOB opened at $3.2520 and closed the week at $3.3138. That’s a $2,595.60 move for the week. Not bad if you were long like we are. So what are the charts telling us?
On the daily chart, ADX is at 85 reflecting an extreme strong trend. MACD has dropped a bit of divergence but remains bullish, and Stochastics are in deep overbought territory. Just look at the rise since the beginning of 2013. On the weekly chart ADX is at 56, a very strong weekly trend.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
COT Data
Take a good look at big money and how they have been posturing on the ride all the way up. Producers were adding to net shorts now at -152,226 contracts, Managed Money were adding to net longs now at 90,139 contracts, and Swap Dealers have also been adding to net longs now at 40,891 contract, which was a slight drop from the previous week.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
Fundamentals
With the U.S. now exporting more refined fuels than ever before — 2011 was the largest U.S. export year — is it a big surprise why the rise in RBOB? More important is the fact that without the large increase in the buying and selling by big money, RBOB prices would be nowhere near where they are today. Watch for a posture change by big money in the coming weeks. If not, RBOB will continue rising. Have a prosperous week.
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