Cotton rebounds as Chinese buyers return to the market


General Comments: Futures were higher on new speculator and consumer buying. The move and its timing created ideas of new Chinese demand as they are now back and working after the Lunar New Year holiday. Bears point to increasing certified stocks levels for reasons to be bearish. Demand bulls noted positive economic data in general and ideas of reduced planted area in the U.S. this season as reasons to buy. The current low new crop prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the U.S. due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Texas areas could get some significant precipitation in the next day or two. Delta and Southeast areas will see some significant precipitation late in the week. Ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers and rain on Friday, and the Southeast could see precipitation through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA spot price is now 77.63 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.288 million bales, from 0.258 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 91.00 March. Support is at 81.70, 80.55, and 80.20 March, with resistance of 82.90, 83.40, and 84.00 March.


General Comments: Futures closed lower on speculative trading as Florida officials said that no real damage was seen in the state after a cold weekend. It was cool, but not cold enough for a long enough period of time to do any damage. Weather should improve in Florida this week. Temperatures will turn warmer in the state, and conditions are dry again. Recent dry weather is creating ideas that more fruit can be lost, but USDA did not really show that in its reports earlier in the month. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid- and early-oranges is continuing, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions or scattered showers. Harvest is continuing, so an increase in supplies should be expected at this time of year.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 123.50, 122.00, and 119.00 March, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 135.00 March.

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