Corn, wheat react to drought; Brazil strike sparks soybeans

Grains and oilseeds report

Soybeans Soybeans

Corn: Corn bulls will want to see the beans continue to press higher as well as see disappointing rain/snow from the upcoming system. Bears will be looking for much needed moisture to fall in Nebraska, South Dakota and other Plains states.

For short-term trade, watch to see if corn can hold nearby March support at 678 as well as divide itself between bearish wheat and bullish beans. New-crop and longer-term traders should see the forecast rains as reason to continue the slow grind lower…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: There was also talk that Europe was buying soymeal Tuesday. Shipping delays out of Brazil added to Tuesday’s buying spree as delays at major ports are reaching the 50-day level.  There was more talk of Brazil workers going on strike in the upcoming weeks.  Brazil dock workers are worried that a government port modernization push will cost them their livelihood. Reuters newswire is reporting that dock workers are not letting non-union workers unload a Chinese vessel for a second day.

We are still recommending producers to be out of old-crop inventory (excluding gambling bushels) by the time South America’s harvest is in full swing (which is coming on fast). Major resistance on the March soybean chart is at the $15 psychological level. If the market tests this level, we would recommended producers sell more inventory that they don’t want to risk into the summer. We would recommend producers who want to maintain ownership of beans into the summer use options to mitigate risk…Jim McCormick
Wheat: Large areas in the western Plains are still dealing with relatively severe drought conditions; however, if we can see the forecast precipitation confirm we could see the pressure continued. After these forecasted showers over the next few days, things appear to calm down and we see a colder and drier bias move back into the western Plains. This colder bias should not create any issues with winter kill.

Demand has continued to improve. Japan is seeing 99,846 tonnes of milling wheat. This is going to be a mix of U.S., Canadian and Australian wheat. Currently, the story for wheat is bearish and though the crop looked rough heading into dormancy, these rains could definitely help the crop heading into spring…Cordon Sroka

About the Author

Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is Senior Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA.

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