Oil risks falling through February lows to $92

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (April ‘13):

• Short Term Trends are bullish.
• Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 110.39. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 106.48. Upside Targets = 117.89 – 121.21.
• April Brent Crude sank lower in limited trading on Monday to settle at its lowest point in a week based on a stronger USD and short term stochastic indicators beginning to turn lower.
• Look for Brent to trade slightly lower to begin the week before finding some support near $116 near the middle of the week.
• Projected Daily Range: 1.38
• Projected Weekly Range: 3.71
• Projected Monthly Range: 6.75

WTI Crude Oil (April ‘13):

• Short Term Trends are bearish.
• Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/15/13 @ 97.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/15/13 @ 96.41. Downside Targets = 94.84 – 93.99.
• March WTI Crude Oil dropped sharply lower to end last week essentially where it began, giving back all of the gains from earlier in the week after reversing the short-term trend from bullish to bearish.
• Look for WTI to break through the February lows and take the entire projected monthly trading range to the downside with an objective of $92.21.
• Projected Daily Range: 1.52
• Projected Weekly Range: 2.49
• Projected Monthly Range: 6.42

Natural Gas (March ‘13):

• Short Term trend is bearish.
• Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/14/13 @ 3.206. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/08/13 @ 3.272. Downside Targets = 3.189 – 3.109.
• March Natural Gas settled at its second lowest level of the year to end last week as it traded within a very tight range for most of the session while making new lows on the current move lower.
• Friday’s price action suggest that the market may be running out of new sellers at current prices and with colder weather accumulating over the past week, look for a mild pop higher in early trading this week that could possibly take the market back near the $3.25 - $3.30 range before sellers return.
• Projected Daily Range: .112
• Projected Weekly Range: .194
• Projected Monthly Range: .492