Oil risks falling through February lows to $92

Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday 02/19/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 110.39. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 106.48. Upside Targets = 117.89 – 121.21.
  • April Brent Crude sank lower in limited trading on Monday to settle at its lowest point in a week based on a stronger USD and short term stochastic indicators beginning to turn lower.
  • Look for Brent to trade slightly lower to begin the week before finding some support near $116 near the middle of the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.38
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.71
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.75

WTI Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/15/13 @ 97.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/15/13 @ 96.41. Downside Targets = 94.84 – 93.99.
  • March WTI Crude Oil dropped sharply lower to end last week essentially where it began, giving back all of the gains from earlier in the week after reversing the short-term trend from bullish to bearish.
  • Look for WTI to break through the February lows and take the entire projected monthly trading range to the downside with an objective of $92.21.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.52
  • Projected Weekly Range: 2.49
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.42

Natural Gas (March ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/14/13 @ 3.206. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/08/13 @ 3.272. Downside Targets = 3.189 – 3.109.
  • March Natural Gas settled at its second lowest level of the year to end last week as it traded within a very tight range for most of the session while making new lows on the current move lower.
  • Friday’s price action suggest that the market may be running out of new sellers at current prices and with colder weather accumulating over the past week, look for a mild pop higher in early trading this week that could possibly take the market back near the $3.25 - $3.30 range before sellers return.
  • Projected Daily Range: .112
  • Projected Weekly Range: .194
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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