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Gold bears braced for U.S. to China growth recovery

By Nicholas Larkin, Bloomberg

February 15, 2013 • Reprints

Gold traders are the most bearish in more than a year on mounting speculation that improving economic growth from the U.S. to China will curb demand for this year’s worst-performing precious metal.

Twenty analysts surveyed by Bloomberg this week expect prices to fall next week, while 11 were bullish and three were neutral, making the proportion of bears the highest since Dec. 30, 2011. Hedge funds cut bets on higher prices by 56% since October and are approaching their least bullish stance on gold since August, government data show. The metal fell to a five-month low today, and billionaire investors George Soros and Louis Moore Bacon reported yesterday that they had reduced stakes in exchange-traded products backed by gold.

First-time jobless claims in the U.S. decreased more than estimated last week, while a Chinese government-backed survey showed manufacturing expanded in January. Growth will accelerate in the world’s two largest economies in coming quarters, according to more than 100 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Investors cut record bullion holdings in exchange-traded products this year and added to funds backed by other precious metals that are used more in industry.

“The global economic recovery is on track,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, a commodity strategist in London at VTB Capital, a unit of Russia’s second-largest lender. “The persistently decent macro data is denying gold its usual safe-haven properties. You can get better returns elsewhere.”

Gold prices that rallied the past 12 years will probably peak in 2013, or already have, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG.

Gold Price

The metal fell 4.4% to $1,602.90 an ounce in New York this year, and reached $1,596.70 today, the lowest since Aug. 15. Gold climbed 7.1% last year in the longest annual rally in at least nine decades. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities is up 4.2% this year and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 4.7%. Treasuries lost 0.9%, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

Gold’s drop compares with a 1.2% loss for silver this year. Platinum and palladium rose at least 6.8% on concern mine supply will fall as demand increases. An ounce of platinum bought as much as 1.054 ounces of gold yesterday, the most in 17 months, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Industrial usage accounts for about 10% of bullion consumption, compared with more than half for the other three metals.

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Copyright 2014 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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US Federal Reserve 8527Gold 7530Bloomberg 5254commodities 3439Metals 3359metal 3075Standard & Poor 2008China 1906International Monetary Fund 1712Economy 1513manufacturing 1315Bank of Japan 1119U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission 958World Gold Council 930Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 864U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission 658Bank of America Corp. 596London Metal Exchange 588Barclays Plc 573Chinese government 551SPDR Gold Trust 436policy makers 323Credit Suisse Group AG 308Maryland 256George Soros 225Treasuries 179Group of 20 countries 144Sentiment 118Treasury Inflation Protected Securities 115Corn 94Paulson & Co. 81Rabobank International 64VTB Capital 56Adrian Day Asset Management 45John Meyer 41Andrey Kryuchenkov 40Traders 34silver products 26Finance ministers 20Moore Capital Management LP 11food products 10Sprott Physical Gold Trust 9SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP 7worst-performing precious metal 2Robert Keck 2Reduced Holdings 1

Free Newsletter Modern Trader Follow

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