Euro lower on concerns of fresh recession

Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 8 higher at 142’28 and the 10 Yr. Note 1 higher at 131’06.This morning’s Weekly Jobless Claims showed a decline of 27,000 vs. expectations of a drop of 8,000. My short term target of 142’30 for recent long positions from the 142’19 area was reached early this morning (the market traded as high as 143’04). If you chose to remain long raise your protective sell stop from the 142’03 level to 142’16. Resistance is currently 144’14.

Grains: Mar. corn is currently 1’4 lower at 694’0, Mar. Beans 11’0 lower at 1412’0, Mar. Wheat 2’4 higher at 738’0 and Dec. Wheat 2’0 higher at 771’0. We remain long out-of-the-money call spreads in Dec. Wheat as a long term trade. I will look to be a buyer in Mar. Corn between 680’0-685’0 if the market allows with a 12’0 cent risk.

Cattle: Apr. LC are currently 85 lower at 128.55 and Mar.FC 65 lower at 140.70 as the market continues its recent slide. Short hedgers should consider buying out of the money calls against short futures positions as a protective measure against price increases. Apr. LC are approaching support in the 127.00 area.

Silver: Mar. Silver is currently $0.09 higher at $30.96 and Apr. Gold is $1.00 higher at 1,646.00. We remain long a small position in Silver. Gold remains in a downtrend as the market is coming close to testing support in the $1,629.00 area (this morning’s low was $1,636.50). Resistance is currently $1,672.00.

S&Ps: Mar. S&Ps are currently 5.00 lower at 1512.50. The markets in Europe are lower based on disappointing GDP figures which pose the possibility of slipping into recession. We remain short futures and short out of the money puts (strike price of 1480).

Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is currently 123 lower at 1.3327, the Swiss 56 lower at 1.0845, the Yen 30 higher at 1.0731 and the Pound 40 lower at 1.5499. The possibility of European recession has the Euro sharply lower this morning against both the Dollar and the Yen. Technically this market will once again generate a sell signal with a close below the 133.70 level and show confirmation of this signal if the market trades below 1.3260. For the moment I am a seller on small rallies in the Euro for short term trading and will keep a small short position if the market closes below 1.3370 with a protective buy stop at 1.3490. Recent volatility dictates greater risk and a reason to trade smaller sized positions.

About the Author
Marc Nemenoff

Mr. Nemenoff is a 40-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Over the years he grew to become an independent member of the exchange and spent many years as a trader, market maker, lecturer, and committee member. Since 2004 Marc has been a senior broker and analyst handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers in addition to institutional traders. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets that includes his own perspective on market direction. Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental and is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy. You can contact Marc by phone at (888) 908-4310 or by email at mnemenoff@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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