Oil finds bearish surprise in IEA monthly report

Quote of the Day.

Minds are like parachutes...they only function when open.

Thomas Dewar

The oil complex is starting the day with small gains ahead of this morning's EIA oil inventory report as the market digests the recently released IEA Monthly Oil report (see below for more details). The EIA and OPEC both increased their projection for global oil demand growth versus last month's reports with the IEA surprising the market by decreasing their forecast vs. last month. It shows a bit of disagreement as to the extent of what many are suggesting is a turning of the corner to a faster growth pattern for the global economy. The IEA report is mildly bearish for oil while the EIA and OPEC reports were mildly bullish. Thus on average I would have to say a neutral round for the monthly projections. Next on the docket is the weekly oil inventory report this morning.

Equity markets have continued to recover some of last week's losses as shown in the EMI Global Equity Index table below. The Index is higher by about 0.2% for the week with the year to date gain standing at 0.9%. Not a strong rebound this week as trading activity in most global markets has been somewhat muted due to a lack of fresh economic data and limited activity in Asia due to the Lunar New Year holiday closures. Global equities have been a neutral price driver for the oil complex so far this week.

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