Natural gas struggles to find buyers ahead of storage report

Daily Market Analysis for Tuesday 02/13/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 110.39. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 106.48. Upside Targets = 117.89 – 121.21.
  • VRCB generated on Tuesday.
  • April Brent Crude moved marginally higher on Tuesday in a very tight trading range as it was still unable to break through last week’s high while closing only $0.10 below last Friday’s settlement.
  • Look for Brent to push through last week’s highs on Wednesday as it reaches for the weekend upside trading objective of $119.01
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.47
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.71
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.75

WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/01/13 @ 96.83. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/04/13 @ 96.17. Downside Targets = 94.84 – 93.99.
  • VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 97.80. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 97.80 or higher.
  • March WTI Crude Oil broke through last week’s high on Tuesday, generating a weekly OVB while stopping less than $0.50 from the 2013 highs.
  • While WTI is technically overbought intraweek, the market should digest some gains on Wednesday before breaking through to new highs and above $100 as previously mentioned in this weekend’s report.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.51
  • Projected Weekly Range: 2.49
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.42

Natural Gas (March ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/08/13 @ 3.281. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/08/13 @ 3.272. Downside Targets = 3.189 – 3.109.
  • March Natural Gas was unable to follow through on the early morning push higher as it dropped to make new lows heading into the close and settling at its lowest mark in over a month.
  • Look for another day down in natural gas heading into Thursday’s storage report as it breaks through $3.20 before finding some ST support just above $3.15.
  • Projected Daily Range: .088
  • Projected Weekly Range: .206
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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