Market makes small gains as cycles remain positive

MAAD & CPFL Analysis

Stock market chart Stock market chart

 

Market Snapshot for session ending 2-12-13
 

Last

Day Change

%Change

S&P 500 Index

1519.43

+2.42

+.16%

Dow Jones Industrials

14018.70

+47.45

+.34%

NASDAQ Composite

3186.49

-5.51

-.17%

Value Line Arithmetic Index

3438.10

+15.21

+.44%

Minor Cycle (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Positive

Intermediate Cycle (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Positive

Major Cycle (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • All of major indexes moved to new short to intermediate-term highs Tuesday, but at the close only the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Value Line index finished positive. NASDAQ Composite registered small loss, but VAY ended at new all-time closing high.
  • Market volume increased by12%.
  • Minor, Intermediate and Major Cycles remain positive, but historically “Overbought.”
  • Short-term negative would be suggested in S&P 500 with weakness below lower edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1498.41 through Wednesday). Intermediate trend turns negative below 10-Week Price Channel (1406.37 through Friday).
  • Daily MAAD rallied to best level Tuesday since last April 3 when S&P was quoted near 1415, and since November lows, but has yet to better intermediate resistance made last March 20. Fourteen issues were positive and 6 were negative Monday while Daily MAAD Ratio was marginally “Overbought” at 1.27.
  • Daily CPFL popped to new short to intermediate-term high Tuesday with Daily CPFL Ratio marginally “Overbought” at 1.21.

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • As waiting game continues with S&P 500 continuing higher in face of “Overbought” conditions on all cycles including Minor, Intermediate, and Major, suggestion lingers that some corrective action could soon develop on at least the smallest short-term cycle.
  • It remains to be seen whether or not major indexes will have the power to overcome long-term Cumulative Volume resistance, or if developing strength could prove to last stage of short-term rally begun December 28 and intermediate-term uptrend begun November 16, given simple fact prices cannot continue higher indefinitely without a correction.
  • If move since November lows turns out to be A-B-C rally with “B” leg pullback from December 19 to January 2, “C” leg rally could be in endgame since upside targets have been met.
  • Longer-term lingering weakness in MAAD, CPFL, Cumulative Volume, and Momentum, since spring 2011 highs is an indication market has not had technical underpinnings evident in first part of bull market from March 2009 to May 2011. Nothing but new highs by all our key indicators, an unlikely event, would erase that technical skepticism on longer term.

Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly
 

2/11

2/12

2/13

2/14

2/15

2/15

2/28

S&P 500 Index

SELL 1496.12

SELL 1496.44

SELL 1498.13

SELL 1498.41

SELL 1500.52

SELL 1406.37

SELL 1330.62

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL 13851.86

SELL 13863.41

SELL 13876.31

SELL 13874.43

SELL 13887.93

SELL 12981.90

SELL 12570.95

NASDAQ Composite

SELL 3138.29

SELL 3138.30

SELL 3141.77

SELL 3141.21

SELL 3147.93

SELL 2968.62

SELL 2862.45

Value Line Index

SELL 3366.76

SELL 3368.22

SELL 3372.18

SELL 3374.65

SELL 3380.68

SELL 3088.73

SELL 2817.27

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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