You can’t keep a good man down. Markets tried to correct and couldn’t do it. The usual suspects are the bears themselves who flat out gave up again just when they had the bulls on the ropes. The reason given for the tech surge late in the week was a stock buyback for Apple Computer.
Are you kidding me? Are the bears this weak they’ll fold up the tent on such questionable news? AAPL doesn’t even have good enough calculations to call a bottom yet. The net result of such a discussion is the SPX ended up at a new high. What that does is violate the 987 day window from last week that was influencing the turn. Not only that but the SPX had some serious Fibonacci calculations at last week’s prior high.
There’s lots going on here but all you need to pay attention to is the ABC coming off the November low where A and C were close to equality. Now that’s gone. Then on the weekly we had a 161A in roughly the same place with the first leg up off the 2011 low. That’s just about gone. Unless they come in and hit it fairly quickly, they’ve opened the door to the 1564 projection we’ve discussed in this space and now at 1518 that’s not so far away and absolutely not far-fetched by any stretch of the imagination. This pattern still resembles a wedge but wedges can fail. Patterns are not set in stone.
We can get all different kinds of failure. The amazing condition is we have a market that just continues to violate one resistance area after another. It’s almost like the good old days. However, there is one difference. The good feeling we had during the Internet and real estate bubbles are absent here. That means in the long run these markets can go a lot higher. But that has little to do with what you may be doing this week or this month. One of the conditions I’ll really be watching this week is the US Dollar which accelerated this past week. As you’ll recall last week we were talking about the action forming a high probability low.
We have projections that take it to about 80.60 which will also be an area where it meets the descending trend line from a potential triangle. The real question is whether the Greenback is a true trading range from last September or whether it wants to continue going higher. We’ve been in the triangle scenario camp over the past 6 weeks. In our work the triangle scenario eventually breaks to the downside. If that really does materialize it ought to free up enough fuel to get the SPX to its target of a retest to the all-time high.
The big news over the past week is the GDP where the annual rate came in at 1.5% and economic historians like to remind us the economy has not avoided recession with numbers this low since 1948. There’s good and bad in this. First of all, anytime sentiment embraces the dark side, it’s a good thing because the worst case scenario rarely happens when it’s anticipated. We live by the hypothesis that economists are wrong most of the time but this time it was none other than Art Cashin discussing this possibility. We have a lot of respect for Mr. Cashin who has just about the most astute mind of anyone on CNBC. It’s a warning signal, no doubt about it. The last time markets were at highs like this nobody was talking about the possibility of a recession so it’s really strange. So by the time the SPX gets to a top retest we could already be in a recession.
Next page: Why did the bears give up?