Oil looks to narrow spreads as WTI aims for $100

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 02/11/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 111.23. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 117.89 – 121.21.
  • Bullish ERVB generated on Friday making new highs on the current move @ $119.17.
    • March Brent Crude continued on with its bullish momentum Friday as it finally broke through the September spot highs at $117.95 as it continues to work towards my IT objective of $121.21
    • Look for Brent to extend its gains in the upcoming week based on Friday’s price action before finding some initial resistance near $120.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.44
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.71
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.75

WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/01/13 @ 96.83. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/04/13 @ 96.17. Downside Targets = 94.84 – 93.99.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 97.22. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 97.22 or higher.
    • March WTI Crude Oil continued to lag Brent significantly toward the end of the week as the spread has increased to over $23 with most of the gains ($7) coming in the last two weeks.
    • If WTI is able to make a move to close above last Friday’s high to begin trading this week, look for the rally to extend itself higher above $100 to $102.43 in the coming weeks.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.64
  • Projected Weekly Range: 2.49
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.42

Natural Gas (March ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/08/13 @ 3.281. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/08/13 @ 3.272. Downside Targets = 3.189 – 3.109.
    • March Natural Gas dropped lower in the latter part of trading on Friday after just a small short-covering pop higher faded into the close session.
    • Look for an extremely volatile week of trading in the upcoming week in the aftermath of a brutal snowstorm and extreme cold weather in parts of the country.
  • Projected Daily Range: .101
  • Projected Weekly Range: .206
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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