Natural gas pushes higher on calls for colder weather

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 02/06/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 111.23. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 117.89 – 121.21.
  • Bullish OVB generated on Tuesday making new highs on the current move @ 117.23.
  • March Brent Crude rebounded significantly on Tuesday to make new contract highs as Monday’s sell-off proved to be short lived.
  • Look for Brent to follow through on Tuesday’s bullish price action and take the full weekly projected trading range to the upside and break through the spot highs made during September at $117.95.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.26
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.75

WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/01/13 @ 96.83. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/04/13 @ 96.17. Downside Targets = 94.84 – 93.99.
  • Inside compression day generated on Tuesday.
  • March WTI Crude Oil lagged Brent on Tuesday as the spread increased back near $20 despite closing above the daily mid-range and holding the previous day’s low.
  • WTI could see some more price consolidation before finding willing buyers to return into the market and help push prices through $100.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.56
  • Projected Weekly Range: 2.61
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.42

Natural Gas (March ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/31/13 @ 3.345. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 02/05/13 @ 3.399. Upside Targets = 3.535 – 3.554.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.399.
  • March Natural Gas saw a second half-day pop higher going into the close as it filled the range gap left from last week after reports of colder Midwest temps hit the squawk box.
  • Look for a continued push higher on Wednesday to fill the close gap still left in the market at $3.463 before testing the $3.50 area where bears aggressively sold this market two weeks ago.
  • Projected Daily Range: .104
  • Projected Weekly Range: .250
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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