Soybeans move corn; weather, exports bearish for wheat

Grain & Oilseeds Report

Corn bin Corn bin

Corn: The bean market is running the show for grains as a whole, but if soybeans don’t have new and exciting dryness talk, then corn will drift lower. Looking forward from here, we expect continued bean support to this corn market, but if beans should be sideways to lower, look for corn to start setting back once again. While Argentina weather controls most of the talk, it might suit us better to watch how March beans trade for how to approach this corn rather than watching March corn itself.

Friday is the next supply/demand report, which while generally more calm can provide some surprises. Trade should release the analysts' average estimates for Friday’s carryout number sometime Tuesday…Ryan Ettner

Soybeans: Next week, the USDA will release its 10-year baseline projections. According to Rich Feltes of RJO, “Baseline new-crop U.S. soybean carryover forecasts have exceeded finals in each of last six years by an average of 96 million bushels.”

Soybean inspections came in at a friendly 53.892 million bushels. This was above the trade-expected range of 36 to 42 million bushels. The USDA also reported on Monday that we sold 116,000 tonnes of beans to China. Half were for old crop and half for new crop.

We are still recommending producers to be out of old-crop inventory (excluding gambling bushels) by the time South America’s harvest is in full swing. Major resistance on the March soybean chart is at the $15 psychological level. If the market tests this level, we would recommended producers sell move inventory that they don’t want to risk into the summer. We would recommend producers who want to maintain ownership of beans into the summer use options to mitigate risk…Jim McCormick
  
Wheat: Wheat prices are still at historically elevated levels due to how poor the crop looked heading into dormancy. The prospect for better wheat exports has so far been disappointing. U.S. weather prospects for the coming weeks are bearish as the chances for above-normal precipitation on NOAA’s two-week forecast seem likely.

One thing we need to keep in mind is looking at the Palmer drought index does not look promising based on where the current drought levels are; however, looking at the NOAA shallow-soil profile, we can see that most of the country falls within the slightly dry/favorable moist category. If we continue to move into spring and do receive some timely rains, things may not be as friendly as the trade has made them out to be…Cordon Sroka

About the Author

Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is Senior Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA. www.allendale-inc.com

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