Oil shakes off pullback to target $100

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 02/05/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar

VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 111.23. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 117.89 – 121.21.
  • Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 115.31. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 115.31 or lower.
  • March Brent Crude dropped lower on Monday for its biggest decline in almost three weeks as Monday began a “risk-off” deleveraging effect because of increased worries in Europe and possible profit taking after a nearly $10 move higher in January.
  • Look for a slight setback in Brent prices this week as a healthy correction is needed to lure more buyers into the market as the oil complex is still technically very bullish and should ultimately crack the $120 mark before Q1 ends.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.26
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.75

WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 02/01/13 @ 96.83. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 02/04/13 @ 96.17. Downside Targets = 94.84 – 93.99.
  • March WTI Crude Oil fell sharply lower on Monday for its largest single day drop in two months to close back near the $96 mark and near the 20-day moving average.
  • Expect for this current sell-off to be short lived and the market to ultimately find some support just below $95 and bulls to return and push the market back above $100 for the first time since September.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.57
  • Projected Weekly Range: 2.61
  • Projected Monthly Range: 6.42

Natural Gas (March ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/24/2013 @ 3.501 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.454. Downside Targets = 3.415 – 3.379.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.345 or higher.
  • March Natural Gas had quite a volatile start to the session on Monday before consolidating out to the side in the second half day of trading forming a 4 day close cluster pattern.
  • Look for natty to move back to the upside in early trading Tuesday before hitting heavy resistance as it nears $3.40 and then falling back to retest last week’s lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: .119
  • Projected Weekly Range: .250
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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