General Comments: Futures closed higher again on ideas that demand is increasing. Most traders still note that big supplies appear to be available to the market, but Brazil said it will increase the ethanol in its gasoline blends in May. There are ideas that this could help work off a lot of the surplus production in Brazil and could tighten world balance sheets. India said it will pay its producers more to grow Sugarcane this year, and that might indicate that current production has been disappointing. Most buyers are still not worried about prices and are not chasing rally attempts. Most statistical organizations continue to look for a big surplus production for the year, although the surplus amounts in these forecasts seem to be dropping. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong after the delayed start to the program. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing and export pace remain slow. It is possible that the crop size there has been overestimated. Traders wonder if and when India will cut offers to the market due to the lower prices and perhaps less than expected production due to some dry weather at the beginning of the growing season.
Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil through this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1910, 1950, and 1965 March. Support is at 1875, 1825, and 1805 March, and resistance is at 1905, 1920, and 1960 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 510.00, 516.00, and 535.00 March. Support is at 490.00, 480.00, and 475.00 March, and resistance is at 503.00, 515.00, and 520.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were higher as traders contemplate less planted area next year and strong export sales. Demand bulls noted positive economic data released last week as another reason to buy. Export sales have been strong for the last month to six weeks, and strong sales are expected to continue after another failed Chinese government auction held over the weekend. However, the export sales report was not bullish last week as the demand was down from previous reports. The report showed that China had cancelled some of its recent purchases. The current low prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather featured some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry. Delta and Southeast areas will turn dry starting today. Ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average much above normal. The USDA spot price is now 77.45 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.144 million bales, from 0.137 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9100 March. Support is at 82.10, 81.40, and 80.20 March, with resistance of 84.00, 85.25, and 87.00 March.
Next page: Orange Juice, Coffee and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures closed higher on speculative buying. Ideas are that USDA can show smaller crops in its reports this week due to the greening disease and dry weather that has been reported in Florida. USDA has cut production potential in the previous two estimates and might be forced to trim the estimate a little more next month. Weather remains about the same in Florida. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions and mild temperatures to continue after some overnight showers and storms. Forecasts do not call for any threatening temperatures, but dry weather is creating ideas that more fruit can be lost. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and scattered showers. Harvest is continuing, so an increase in supplies should be expected at this time of year.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 123.00, 125.00, and 131.00 March. Support is at 120.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, with resistance at 123.00, 126.00, and 128.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were higher on speculative buying that found little offer from origin. Brazil producers were not selling as the Real strengthened against the US Dollar, and Vietnam producers were not selling much, either. London trends turned up on Friday. Prices for Arabica remain in the recent trading range, with bulls talking about the losses from rust in Central America and the bears noting that there is more than enough coffee being produced in other countries to cover the losses seen in Central America. The problem is serious there, with all countries being affected. Conservative crop estimates put the losses at about 25%, and some say the percentage lost is higher and could be 35% or more. For now, it looks like Central America could lose at least 5% of the total crop this year and more next year. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting beneficial showers for the developing crop. Production ideas remain big there, and also remain big in Vietnam even though producers there talk about the potential for 25% crop losses. Central America crops are mostly harvested. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.628 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 135.21 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions this week and scattered showers and storms this weekend and into next week. Temperatures will average near normal. Colombia should get mostly dry conditions, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 146.00, 145.50, and 142.50 March, and resistance is at 151.50, 154.50, and 158.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2070, 2100, and 2290 March. Support is at 2020, 2000, and 1985 March, and resistance is at 2050, 2060, and 2085 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 179.00 March. Support is at 181.00, 179.50, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 185.00, 188.00, and 190.00 March.
General Comments: Futures closed mixed, as New York closed unchanged to a little lower and as London closed higher on what was called speculative short covering. Speculators seemed to be the biggest traders on both sides of the market. There were also reports of end user demand as prices have gotten very cheap lately. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress and for the mid-crop and next crop. Nigerian sources told wire services that current colder and wetter weather is very good for mid-crop development. Demand is still reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production deficit next year. Ivory Coast growing conditions are reported good right now as the Harmattan winds have subsided without causing any real damage to crops. Some showers have been reported there and in Ghana as well.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa, but some showers are expected in coastal areas. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.824 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2360, 2450, and 2690 March. Support is at 2155, 2145, and 2115 March, with resistance at 2230, 2250, and 2275 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1410, 1405, and 1380 March, with resistance at 1445, 1455, and 1465 March.