Natural Gas (March ‘13)
WEEKLY OUTLOOK:
Intermediate Term Trend is bullish.
Current Downside Targets = $3.652 – $3.750
Projected Weekly Range: $0.222
Projected Monthly Range: $0.515
- Natural Gas dropped lower for the second straight week as the largest storage injection of the season was unable to help propel the market back through $3.40 in the second half of the week and left a bearish weekly close gap in the market at $3.463. If/when last week’s low is broken, it will partially confirm an IT TREND REVERSAL back to bearish and set up the possibility for this market to trade back below $3 and to an extended IT objective of $2.823. WTI Crude Oil: (March ‘13)
WEEKLY OUTLOOK:
Intermediate Term Trends are bullish.
Current Upside Targets = $92.52 – $97.24 – $103.88
Projected Weekly Range: $3.21
Projected Monthly Range: $7.18
- WTI traded all to the upside during this past week as it traded and closed outside the weekly RBB for the first time since the 2012 highs were made in late February. The oil markets still have plenty of room left to the upside and while WTI specifically is starting to show some slight indicators that it may be overbought into some short-term resistance; expect for the 78% probability of trading through the spot September highs at $100.42 mentioned in this year’s first report to unfold before there is a close below the low of a high week.
Brent Crude: (March ‘13)
WEEKLY OUTLOOK:
Intermediate Term Trends are bullish.
Current Upside Targets = $115.89 - $121.21
Projected Weekly Range: $3.63
Projected Monthly Range: $7.44
- Brent saw the volatility pop higher as projected in last week’s report as it too moved through the weekly RBB to generate its highest weekly close since April 2012 before stopping just shy of spot September highs at $117.95. As is much the same case with WTI, Brent is beginning to look overbought on the short term as it has moved higher for three straight weeks and could see a mild profit-taking selloff back below last week’s mid-range before another round of buying comes into the market and takes it up towards the major-term objective first mentioned in last week’s report of $125.33.
Next page: Gold and Copper
WEEKLY OUTLOOK:
Intermediate Term Trends are bullish.
Current Upside Targets = $1,755.70 – $1,785.60
Projected Weekly Range: $37.10
Projected Monthly Range: $81.10
- Gold had very volatile price action this past week but did so in an overall tight trading range, narrowly avoiding becoming a VRCB week. The price action for the week turned out to be bearish divergent with lower lows and highs but closing above the weekly mid-range points to a high probability of last week’s high being violated. This current consolidation phase we are seeing in gold is very similar to what we just saw in Brent before a breakout higher and all through there has been very little follow through in recent weeks, I expect to see an eventual move back to the November ’12 highs before the end of Q1.
Copper: (March ‘13)
WEEKLY OUTLOOK:
Intermediate Term Trends are bullish.
Current Upside Target = $3.9550 – $4.0245
Projected Weekly Range: $0.1035
Projected Monthly Range: $0.1990
- Copper reversed course from its indecisive price action over the previous few weeks and broke out to new 2013 highs and traded to its highest level since the first week of Q4 ’12. The current optimistic sentiment towards the housing industry as well as the economic recovery is helping fuel rising copper prices and a current upward rising bullish trend channel should help the market continue to rise all the way to my Q1 objective of 4.0245.
