Is Apple bad medicine for a rising stock market?

Weekly Report: MAAD and CPFL Indicator Analysis

Conclusion

Interesting isn’t it that by the time the financial press divines that something is wrong in a particular issue, a large part of the damage is already done. Apple Computer is no exception to that rule. The points at which the stock, as we outlined earlier, became first an intermediate-term sell ($629) and then ultimately a long-term sell ($508) were totally unknown to most investors holding the stock – and the media. Sure, there were astute traders exiting the stock all the way down from its all-time high at $705.07, but the sad truth is that most investors probably bought AAPL late and well off its long-term Buy signal and will continue to hold it long after the party is over even though Cumulative Volume is suggesting AAPL ought to be trading closer to $200 that $450.

The broad stock market will also be no exception to the “too late in” and “too late out” rule, because most investors always buy and sell for the wrong reasons, one of which is that they are always looking for justification to hold a position other than what pricing and volume are actually saying are the real justifications.

We continue to believe this stock market is far closer to a Major Cycle high than not. Whether or not new highs above the 2007 highs follow remains to be seen. It’s a toss. But when this market does turn lower, it will do so as it has always done – without warning. Unfortunately the majority of investors will be caught flat-footed just as they were caught by AAPL. And why? Because they have no exit strategies.

MAAD Daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL data for past 30 Days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

12-19-12

8

10

12-19-12

23234

17820

12-20-12

15

4

12-20-12

60116

9429

12-21-12

1

19

12-21-12

113448

24330

12-24-12

7

11

12-24-12

12273

4633

12-25-12

Holiday

 

12-25-12

Holiday

 

12-26-12

10

10

12-26-12

13183

9095

12-27-12

4

16

12-27-12

13740

15048

12-28-12

3

17

12-28-12

9876

20514

12-31-12

19

0

12-31-12

66137

7704

1-1-13

Holiday

 

1-1-13

Holiday

 

1-2-13

18

2

1-2-13

41038

18210

1-3-13

8

12

1-3-13

27988

14827

1-4-13

16

4

1-4-13

15918

9326

1-7-13

8

12

1-7-13

12111

9021

1-8-13

5

15

1-8-13

30884

8826

1-9-13

11

9

1-9-13

6980

9587

1-10-13

17

3

1-10-13

17253

12394

1-11-13

10

10

1-11-13

21372

8073

1-14-13

8

11

1-14-13

25044

8390

1-15-13

10

10

1-15-13

6735

7626

1-16-13

10

10

1-16-13

9145

14231

1-17-13

11

8

1-17-13

17630

15208

1-18-13

12

7

1-18-13

30618

15985

1-22-13

11

9

1-22-13

13881

14187

1-23-13

8

12

1-23-13

11642

7175

1-24-13

11

9

1-24-13

12868

13706

1-25-13

15

5

1-25-13

45897

12776

1-28-13

10

9

1-28-13

9419

33969

1-29-13

12

8

1-29-13

12384

7416

1-30-13

10

10

1-30-13

13203

10238

1-31-13

6

14

1-31-13

4509

11894

2-1-13

17

3

2-1-13

17057

14662

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

7-13-12

7

13

7-13-12

115325

165598

7-20-12

11

9

7-20-12

155286

106164

7-27-12

15

5

7-27-12

469554

55021

8-3-12

14

4

8-3-12

189964

56326

8-10-12

18

2

8-10-12

127913

51441

8-17-12

11

9

8-17-12

168381

34193

8-24-12

5

14

8-24-12

61567

91299

8-31-12

4

16

8-31-12

27713

56889

9-7-12

17

2

9-7-12

192729

30202

9-14-12

17

3

9-14-12

295058

62406

9-21-12

4

16

9-21-21

140898

41443

9-28-12

6

14

9-28-28

68066

104869

10-5-12

15

5

10-5-12

82790

46425

10-12-12

4

16

10-12-12

23119

203431

10-19-12

10

10

10-19-12

40632

219576

10-26-12

6

14

10-26-12

43539

151159

11-2-12

15

5

11-2-12

31681

39436

11-9-12

0

20

11-9-12

51223

261506

11-16-12

3

17

11-16-12

104817

333252

11-23-12

18

2

11-23-12

136708

34280

11-30-12

12

8

11-30-12

152468

59828

12-7-12

15

5

12-7-12

53407

49271

12-14-12

10

10

12-14-12

51445

98445

12-21-12

14

6

12-21-12

216650

126720

12-28-12

5

15

12-28-12

19431

48587

1-4-13

19

1

1-4-13

142605

25100

1-11-13

13

5

1-11-13

90566

22250

1-18-13

11

8

1-18-13

75858

37446

1-25-13

12

7

1-25-13

67580

24811

2-1-13

14

6

2-1-13

47418

27737

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

<< Page 5 of 5
About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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