On another note, either the market is climbing the biggest wall of worry we’ve seen in a long time or something is wrong. How can the market keep going up with such sour economic data? The market won’t turn down because of the GDP data but the economy can improve because the stock market is the best leading economic indicator there is. However, we’ve been at a high point for a long time and the economy should be much better. It’s the strangest condition I’ve ever seen. This is also the first time I’ve ever seen Washington have such an influence over the economy. At selected times in history; economies are deeply affected by politics. It always is in a time of war. If you look at the 39-42 bear you’ll see a lot of correlation between the battlefield and the ticker. This also explains a lot of choppiness in periods like the fiscal cliff negotiation. But at the end of the day the trend is what it is. I believe we’d be in a secular bull even if the country went over the fiscal cliff. But we all know that noise in the short term can impact even the best of markets.
But the only thing here we really can do without is a constant rising market as the Dollar continues to sink. I don’t think it would do any good if the Dow got to 16000 while the Dollar got to 65.
By the way, the market won’t go up forever, I promise. It only feels that way. Maybe the Dolphins will win a few games here and there.
About the Author
Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.
Lucas Wave International (https://www.lucaswaveinternational.com) provides forecasts of financial markets via the Fibonacci Forecaster and other reports. The company provides coaching/seminars to teach traders around the world about this cutting edge methodology.