KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 111.23. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 117.89 – 121.21.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 115.24.
- March Brent Crude pushed higher again on Wednesday to make new five-month highs while closing outside the daily RBB for the second consecutive day.
- With a steadily declining USD, risk assets such as Brent should continue to rise over the intermediate term and move higher before reaching my longstanding IT objective of $121.21.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.26
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 98.24.
- March WTI Crude Oil continued higher on Wednesday despite a large supply injection at Cushing while closing outside the daily RBB as it attempts to track down the $100 threshold.
- While WTI experienced a range reduction on Wednesday and increasing its oversold status, it will require significant strength from the USD to put a halt to the nearly two months of sustained momentum WTI has established.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.41
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.29
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (March ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/24/2013 @ 3.501 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.454. Downside Targets = 3.415 – 3.379.
- C > HOLB generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 3.345. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.345 or higher.
- March Natural Gas rallied higher on Wednesday after leaving a slight close gap in the market from Tuesday ahead of what may be the largest storage withdrawal of the season and a volatility rally as mentioned in Tuesday evening’s report.
- After a modest dip to begin Thursday’s session, expect extremely volatile trading with a strong possibility of the weekly close gap left at $3.463 being filled with a 200+ pull.
- Projected Daily Range: .094
- Projected Weekly Range: .250
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
METALS
COMEX Gold (April ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/30/13 @ 1667.20. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/30/13 @ 1681.60. Upside Target = 1713.30 – 1725.30
- April Gold followed through on early week reports Wednesday as it exploded higher following a terrible US GDP report as investors turned back to the metal on expectations of further easing from the Fed.
- Wednesday’s strong bullish price action along with the confirmation of a higher ST low, look for gold to make a strong move above $1,700 and go after the December 2012 highs.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/24/12 @ 1.3378. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1.3592.
- The euro continued to build upon recent bullish momentum as it traded to its highest level in 13 months on a staggering USD on its way to my Q1 upside target of 1.3709.
- Current IT charting formations show a possible inverted head-and-shoulders pattern possibly forming that sets up for a year end objective of 1.46 for the FX currency.
- Projected Daily Range: .0098
- Projected Weekly Range: .0238
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
- New highs made on the current move Wednesday @ 1506.00.
- The March S&Ps dropped lower in the last part of trading Wednesday for its first decline in 11 trading sessions as traders pondered over the possible economic impacts of further defense spending cuts on top of a negative Q4 GDP number.
- While many retail investors are beginning to come in to the market after one of the best starts to the year in decades, the current move remains dramatically overbought and should see a 50 point correction before breaking through 1525.
- Projected Daily Range: 12.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 33.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
