Even with conflicting economic data coming out today, on the heels of a subpar preliminary GDP reading, the U.S. equity indexes are still approximately unchanged from yesterday’s closes. Consumer spending in the U.S. climbed in December as incomes grew by the most in eight years, but jobless claims increased more than initially forecast. The MAR13 E-mini S&P 500 touched the key 1500 level today, but sold off 5 points immediately after hitting that level. We believe that the markets will respond more to tomorrow’s key monthly release of the employment situation (non-farm payrolls, unemployment percentage, etc.). If the number surprises to the downside in a big way, we could see a sell-off of the S&P 500 to the tune of around 15 points, and a bond rally. With that said, we believe that as long as the S&P 500 is above 1460, it is in very bullish territory for the medium- to longer-term.
Energy markets are moving quite a bit today, with RBOB gasoline retracing some gains, trading down $.021. Natural gas also is trading down $.07 to $3.27. Crude oil futures have been climbing what we have called a “wall of worry” recently, and are today giving back some recent gains. Crude is trading down $.72 at $97.22. Technically, it’s hard to fight this bull move in crude oil with a bearish outlook, but fundamentally, it does seem as though crude is in a seasonal fundamental bullish pattern and could potentially reverse course after springtime.
We focus more on the Euro currency movement today. The Euro currency futures market has been extremely bullish in 2013, with many of the headline jolts to the Euro of last year noticeably absent in 2013. We see key support at 1.34 and then 1.32. If the Euro heads back down close to 1.34, we would view that at this point as an interesting time to get even more bullish. Technically, our upside target for this market is the 1.3875 area, but we don’t think the Euro will make a direct run to that level. We believe the Euro might find congestion at the 1.36-37 area.
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