Sugar retreats as supplies remain abundant

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed mixed in light volume trading. Weather remains good in Florida. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions and mild temperatures to continue for now, but a cold front is expected to bring a chill to the state by next week. Forecasts do not call for any threatening temperatures, but the talk of colder weather created some buying in the nearby months. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing normal temperatures and scattered showers. Harvest is continuing, so an increase in supplies should be expected at this time of year.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but showers are likely today. Temperatures will average above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 113.00, 110.00, and 109.00 March, with resistance at 118.00, 122.00, and 126.00 March.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher after trading both sides of unchanged. Much of the action was in options, and this is often a sign that a trend change is coming. Prices remain in the recent trading range, but sellers once again do not seem interested in pressing the market lower. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting beneficial showers for the developing crop. Production ideas remain big there, and also remain big in Vietnam. Prices quoted for Brazil coffee are very close to those for Central American varieties. Central America crops are mostly harvested. There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and this has become a big issue as well. Crops in Central America will see some significant losses due to rust next year, and some yields have been impacted this year. Yield losses could be 30% or more. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are sharply lower today and are about 2.611 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 134.71 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions this week and scattered showers and storms this weekend and into next week. Temperatures will average near normal. Colombia should get mostly dry conditions, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 145.50, 142.50, and 141.00 March, and resistance is at 151.50, 154.50, and 158.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1930, 1905, and 1900 March, and resistance is at 1965, 1980, and 1985 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 179.00 March. Support is at 181.00, 179.50, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 185.00, 188.00, and 190.00 March.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed higher on some short covering from the recent down move. Weak demand ideas are still around and could limit any up side move. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress and for the mid crop and next crop. Demand is reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. Ivory Cost growing conditions are reported good right now as the Harmattan winds are subsiding without causing any real damage to crops. Some showers have been reported as well. The better weather is needed as it was too dry last year.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa, but some showers are expected. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.812 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2100 March. Support is at 2155, 2145, and 2115 March, with resistance at 2210, 2230, and 2250 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1410, 1405, and 1380 March, with resistance at 1440, 1455, and 1465 March.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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