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Euro sees room to run to 1.37

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 01/30/2013

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January 30, 2013 • Reprints


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/24/12 @ 1.3378. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
  • Bullish OVB generated on Tuesday making new highs on the current move @ 1.3503.
  • The March Euro FX finally exceeded the 2012 highs on Tuesday as it traded through the 1.35 mark for the first time since late November of 2011.
  • The euro still needs to close above 1.35 to tackle the last obstacle between it and moving to my Q1 upside objective of 1.3709.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0090
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0238
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0381

METALS

COMEX Gold (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/24/13 @ 1668.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/25/13 @ 1658.80. Downside Target = 1640.50 – 1625.70
  • April Gold rebounded from Monday’s drop lower with bullish price action on Tuesday after once again finding some support near $1,655.
  • Tuesday’s price action is typical of a market looking to make a ST bottom and with a strong close on Wednesday making new highs for the week; look for the ensuing rally to finally break through $1,700.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.40
  • Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 90.30

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13): 

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
  • Bullish OVB generated on Tuesday making new highs on the current move @ 1505.75.
  • The March S&Ps broke firmly through the psychological barrier of 1500 on Tuesday and even closed just off the session’s high as it closes in on the RBB and primary stochastic indicators are at their highest levels ever recorded.
  • With the only upside objective left for the market at 1514.75, my Q1 target, the S&Ps should be nearing a ST top and see a modest correction after being on pace for its best January ever.
  • Projected Daily Range: 12.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 33.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.00

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 111.23. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37.
  • New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 114.49.
  • March Brent Crude logged its best single day gain in eight trading session Tuesday as it continues to push towards the $115 mark while closing outside the daily RBB.
  • Brent still has a 99.875% probability of trading to either $115.09 or drop to $112 by the end of the week as noted in this weekend’s report and current price action indicates the former the most likely scenario.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.21
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.54

WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
  • New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 97.82.
  • March WTI Crude Oil moved sharply higher on Tuesday to extend its current move higher as it marked the 35th day from the bottom without a single 5VB conservative sell signal.
  • WTI is likely to make a run just through $100 before the next ST top is formed despite peaking stochastic indicators and a market that is in dire need of a $5+ correction.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.33
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.29
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.18

Natural Gas (March ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/24/2013 @ 3.501 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.454. Downside Targets = 3.415 – 3.379.
  • VRCB generated on Tuesday making new lows on the current move @ 3.232.
  • March Natural Gas dropped lower on Tuesday as it generated its second consecutive daily close gap while approaching the breakout levels from 2 ½ weeks ago.
  • Currently natural gas is oversold intraweek and may see a few days of higher prices leading into the storage report before returning back lower to possibly sub-$3 prices.
  • Projected Daily Range: .091
  • Projected Weekly Range: .250
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492
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About the Author
Kris Hicks

Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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