KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37.
- March Brent Crude rebounded from the early session drop to close at its highest level since mid-September as it proves to be resilient while facing tremendous amounts of resistance at current prices.
- As mentioned since the beginning of the year, Brent really needs to press through the $115 mark in order to unleash further buying that will help push the market back above $120 for the first time since last May.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.15
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
- March WTI Crude Oil once again found support at the 10-day moving average, as it had from the previous three trading sessions, to move back near the 2013 highs.
- Based on Monday’s bullish price action, some follow through buying should unfold on Tuesday, moving above last week’s high and toward the second upside target of $97.57.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.34
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.29
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (March ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/24/2013 @ 3.501 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.454. Downside Targets = 3.415 – 3.379.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 3.291.
- March Natural Gas dropped significantly lower on Monday after gapping down 5 cents to begin the session and continued lower as projected in this weekend’s report.
- Current stochastic indicators and rates of change are pointing increasingly downward and this market could target sub-$3 within the next two weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: .115
- Projected Weekly Range: .250
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
METALS
COMEX Gold (April ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/24/13 @ 1668.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/25/13 @ 1658.80. Downside Target = 1640.50 – 1625.70
- VRCB generated on Monday making new lows on the current move @ 1653.20.
- April Gold continued to fall lower after being unable to stage an intraday rally as broader risk markets had a mostly non-directional day.
- Lack of renewed sellers coming into the market neutralized the price action and could signal an end to the ST selloff should gold close above Monday’s high of $1,663.60.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/24/12 @ 1.3378. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
- Inside VRCB generated on Monday.
- The March Euro FX was unable to establish any follow through buying on Monday as it trade within an extremely narrow range as was the case with most headline risk markets.
- Expect Monday’s non-directional price action to be short lived and last week’s high to be violated early this week as it seeks out the secondary upside target at 1.3511.
- Projected Daily Range: .0097
- Projected Weekly Range: .0238
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
- New highs made on current move Monday @ 1500.00.
- The March S&Ps continued to plug along modestly higher on Monday as they barely edged out a gain on the session while touching 1500 for the first time since December 2007.
- With both daily and weekly trading ranges compressing and stochastic’s at peak levels, the S&Ps manage to continue higher towards the extended upside target of 1505.25.
- Projected Daily Range: 12.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 33.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
