Natural gas could trade below $3 within weeks

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 01/29/2013


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37.
  • March Brent Crude rebounded from the early session drop to close at its highest level since mid-September as it proves to be resilient while facing tremendous amounts of resistance at current prices.
  • As mentioned since the beginning of the year, Brent really needs to press through the $115 mark in order to unleash further buying that will help push the market back above $120 for the first time since last May.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.15
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.54

WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
  • March WTI Crude Oil once again found support at the 10-day moving average, as it had from the previous three trading sessions, to move back near the 2013 highs.
  • Based on Monday’s bullish price action, some follow through buying should unfold on Tuesday, moving above last week’s high and toward the second upside target of $97.57.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.34
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.29
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.18

Natural Gas (March ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/24/2013 @ 3.501 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.454. Downside Targets = 3.415 – 3.379.
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 3.291.
  • March Natural Gas dropped significantly lower on Monday after gapping down 5 cents to begin the session and continued lower as projected in this weekend’s report.
  • Current stochastic indicators and rates of change are pointing increasingly downward and this market could target sub-$3 within the next two weeks.
  • Projected Daily Range: .115
  • Projected Weekly Range: .250
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492

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