Natural gas could trade below $3 within weeks

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 01/29/2013

METALS

COMEX Gold (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/24/13 @ 1668.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/25/13 @ 1658.80. Downside Target = 1640.50 – 1625.70
  • VRCB generated on Monday making new lows on the current move @ 1653.20.
  • April Gold continued to fall lower after being unable to stage an intraday rally as broader risk markets had a mostly non-directional day.
  • Lack of renewed sellers coming into the market neutralized the price action and could signal an end to the ST selloff should gold close above Monday’s high of $1,663.60.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.20
  • Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 90.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/24/12 @ 1.3378. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Monday.
  • The March Euro FX was unable to establish any follow through buying on Monday as it trade within an extremely narrow range as was the case with most headline risk markets.
  • Expect Monday’s non-directional price action to be short lived and last week’s high to be violated early this week as it seeks out the secondary upside target at 1.3511.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0097
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0238
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0381

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
  • New highs made on current move Monday @ 1500.00.
  • The March S&Ps continued to plug along modestly higher on Monday as they barely edged out a gain on the session while touching 1500 for the first time since December 2007.
  • With both daily and weekly trading ranges compressing and stochastic’s at peak levels, the S&Ps manage to continue higher towards the extended upside target of 1505.25.
  • Projected Daily Range: 12.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 33.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
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About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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