Corn, soybean, wheat traders watching technicals, exports

Grain & Oilseeds Report

Wheat field Wheat field

Corn: Corn traders will need to watch the Argentina weather situation closer than ever right now. Bulls put a nice push into the market Monday but need to remain cautious on how low volume the buying was. Bears will likely defend the downward trendline once again if tested this week. For the short term, look for the trendline to hold as well as the 100-day moving average at 738-1/2. It will likely take larger volume buying than what we saw Monday to take out those resistance points. Watch Argentina weather updates as closely as bean traders for the next two weeks…Ryan Ettner

Soybeans: The weekly export inspections came in at 40.667 million bushels. This is considered neutral as it was within the expected range of 39.0 to 43.0 million bushels. We are still recommending producers to be out of old-crop inventory (excluding gambling bushels) by the time South America’s harvest is in full swing. Major resistance on the March soybean chart is the 100-day moving average at $14.84 then at the $15.00 psychological level. If the market tests these levels, we would recommended producers sell the rest of their inventory that they don’t want to risk into the summer. We would recommend producers who want to maintain ownership of beans into the summer use options to mitigate risk…Jim McCormick
Wheat: Wheat closed higher Monday after spending most of the day lower. Corn found enough strength to pull the wheat back to positive territory late in the session, but volume was light. This may set up a “turnaround Tuesday” type attitude for tomorrow. Global ending stocks are not tight for wheat. They are tight for corn and beans, however. We also talked about how there is no correlation between how wheat goes into dormancy to how the final yield turns out. Three out of the last four times good-to-excellent levels were poor going into dormancy, the final yield was above the five-year average. Wheat could be explosive if conditions are dry once again early spring. We feel it is not time to get bullish just yet. Wheat will most likely continue to be a follower of corn as we go through the next few weeks. Monday's trade was lighter volume and could continue that way until we see some news to excite things once again…Steve Georgy

About the Author

Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is Senior Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA.

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