Coffee higher after producers say Roya to cut crop next year


General Comments:  Futures were higher after trading both sides of unchanged.  Prices remain in the recent trading range.  Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting beneficial showers for the developing crop.  Production ideas remain big there, and also remain big in Vietnam, where exports were big for January.  However, Vietnam sources told wire services yesterday that the crop next year could drop 25% due to poor weather.  Prices quoted for Brazil coffee are very close to those for Central American varieties.  Central America crops are mostly harvested.  There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and Roya has become a big issue as well.  It was mentioned by the press in a big way yesterday.  It is possible that many Central America and Mexico producers will harvest much less Coffee next year if they are affected by this disease, and many seem to be affected.  Crops in Central America will see some significant losses due to Roya next year, and some yields have been impacted this year.  Yield losses could be 30% or more.  Colombia is reported to have good conditions. 

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.621 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 133.68 ct/lb.  Brazil should get mostly dry conditions this week and scattered showers and storms this weekend and into next week.  Temperatures will average near normal.  Colombia should get mostly dry conditions, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  Ukraine Sugara production from local beets is now 2.22 million tons, down 5% from last year. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 145.50, 142.50, and 141.00 March, and resistance is at 151.50, 154.50, and 158.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1930, 1905, and 1900 March, and resistance is at 1965, 1980, and 1985 March.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 179.00 March.  Support is at 181.00, 179.50, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 185.00, 188.00, and 190.00 March.


General Comments:  Futures were a little higher in recovery trading as an important support area on the charts held.  Trends remain up as traders contemplate less planted area next year and strong export sales.  Bull spreads will be featured once again as the market tries to find some Cotton.  Those looking for Cotton are having a tough time as supplies do not seem to be out there, or at least are not available to the market.  Export sales have been strong for the last month to six weeks, and strong sales are expected to continue after another failed Chinese government auction held over the weekend.  Buyers there said that the government wanted high prices for inferior Cotton and that they would continue to import even with higher taxes.  The current low prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year.  Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops.  The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans.  Current weather features some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry.  Delta areas will turn dry this week.  Ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry conditions, although showers and storms are expected today and tomorrow.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Texas will get dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The USDA spot price is now 75.68 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.115 million bales, from 0.112 million yesterday. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9100 March.  Support is at 80.20, 79.90, and 78.00 March, with resistance of 84.00, 85.25, and 87.00 March.

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