Last week March 2013 Sugar opened at 18.32 and closed the week at 18.38. This coming week’s bull targets are 18.63 and 18.89, bear targets are 18.09 and 17.81.
Looking at the daily chart you can see that the drop that started on Jan. 3 from 19.70 is picking up strength as ADX climbs to 27. MACD has dropped divergence from below the signal line and Stochastics have corrected from oversold territory with the help of a 38-point move up this past Tuesday. The four-day EMA is threatening to cross over the nine-day EMA. It looks like that could take place right at 18.50.
On the three-year weekly chart, you can see back in May 2010 sugar’s price action touched 13.00, but never closed below this price point. For a few weeks sugar hung around 14.00 as a low. Look at the drop from February 2010 to May 2010. 30.00 dropping to 14.00 is an almost $18,000 drop.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
COT Data
Look real close on how the “big money” changed posture just ahead of the huge move up in Sugar from June to the end of 2010. See the green line, that’s our friends the Swap Dealers. Move ahead now to today, this past week Managed Money for the first time dipped into a net short position, Swap Dealers have a large net long position, and Producers had a drop to net shorts.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
Fundamentals
Back in November, the CEO of Nestle was quoted as saying “sugar will be at 18.00 before the end of 2012.”
For 2013, however, it is being forecast that sugar demand could outstrip supply, sending prices on a nice trip up like we saw back in 2010. And this is interesting, the top five world sugar producers are:
- European Union (EU), which almost doubles number two.
- India
- Brazil
- China
- United States
So you know what you need to watch for to catch the next ride up. And at this time the “sweet spot” of March 2013 sugar is 18.00.
Have a prosperous week.
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