S&P 500 weighs resistance above 1500

Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 17 lower at 143’17 and the 10-Year Note 9.5 lower at 131’03.5. Durable Goods Report this morning showed an increase of 4.6% well above expectations of an increase of 2.0%. The immediate reaction of the Report was only a 6 tick break from the 143’23 level before the Report. On Friday we tried the long side of the market only to be stopped out with a small loss when the market traded through the 144’12 support level. As I have mentioned in previous reports, my long term bias remains negative, that being said I find myself on the sidelines because present levels have missed this last downward leg since Thursday.

Grains: Mar. Corn is currently fractionally lower at 720’4, Mar. Beans unchanged at 1441’0, Mar. Wheat fractionally lower at 775’4 and Dec. Wheat 1’0 higher at 812’0. I am still biased to the long side of Mar. Corn in the 707’0-712’0 area. Consider going long out of the money call spreads in Dec. Wheat as a long term trade with limited risk.

Cattle: The On Feed, Placement and Marketing figures were all better than expected and I currently expect the LC to be 100+ higher and FC at least 50 higher. On Friday we took profits from all recent long speculative positions ahead of the Report putting us on the sidelines for the moment. Hedgers should continue to hold short hedges. For those producers who bought out of the money call against short hedges, stay and hold.

Silver: Mar. Silver is currently $0.25 lower at $30.96 and April Gold is $5.00 lower at $1,652.00. We remain long Silver. Gold is currently in minor support in the middle of the $1,645.00-$1,657.00 area. If you are willing to try the long side, use protective sell stop just below the $1,643.00 level. If minor support does not hold the next level of support is the mid-$1,620s.

S&Ps: Mar. S&Ps are currently 2.00 higher at 1497.50. The market has once again made a new high at 1500.00. We continue to hold a small short position from the 1485.00 area and are closely watching the market as it nears long term resistance in the 1502.00-1507.00 area. I caution against being aggressive on either side of this market.

Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is currently 1 tick higher at 1.3470, the Swiss 23 lower at 1.0775, the Yen 8 higher at 1.1002 and the Pound 60 lower at 1.5735.

About the Author
Marc Nemenoff

Mr. Nemenoff is a 40-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Over the years he grew to become an independent member of the exchange and spent many years as a trader, market maker, lecturer, and committee member. Since 2004 Marc has been a senior broker and analyst handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers in addition to institutional traders. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets that includes his own perspective on market direction. Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental and is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy. You can contact Marc by phone at (888) 908-4310 or by email at mnemenoff@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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