KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37.
- March Brent Crude continued to slowly move higher on Friday as it made new highs for the year but closed back below the daily mid-range and inside the daily RBB for the only time last week.
- With an IT double VRCB formation established last week, Brent has a 99.875% chance of having a weekly trading range greater than $2.49 this week, which will either help push Brent through the $115 ceiling or start a ST correction back down to below $110.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.12
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
- Second consecutive inside day generated on Friday.
- March WTI Crude Oil was unable to build on last week’s positive momentum as it traded out to the side virtually all week and actually closed down from the previous week.
- Given that WTI generated its second VRCB week in the past three trading weeks, if it is unable to trade and close outside of last week’s high, WTI could be forming a ST top that could see the market fall back below $92.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.55
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.29
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.359. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.373. Upside Targets = 3.583 – 3.628.
- VRCB generated on Friday making new lows on the current move @ 3.423.
- March Natural Gas logged a small gain on Friday with bearish divergent price action in a tight trading session as traders seemed at odds on the next direction of the trade.
- With current weather forecast signaling an end to the recent cold spell that has plagued the northeast, natural gas could drop to the mid-$3.30s before any buyers return and the next, and possibly last, up leg of the season begins.
- Projected Daily Range: .099
- Projected Weekly Range: .250
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
METALS
COMEX Gold (April ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/24/13 @ 1668.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/25/13 @ 1658.80. Downside Target = 1640.50 – 1625.70
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 1657.30.
- April Gold dropped sharply lower in the second half of trading last week after breaking down Monday’s VRCB formation to close just off the weekly lows erasing the gains of the prior 2 weeks.
- With the ST trend still remaining bullish, look for buyers to come back in to support the market on a violation of $1,650 to once again push the market back near the $1,700 threshold.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/24/12 @ 1.3378. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
- Bullish ERVB generated on Friday making new highs on the current move @ 1.3485.
- The March Euro FX moved sharply higher on Friday before stopping just three ticks shy of the 2012 highs yet closed outside both the daily and weekly RBB.
- Look for a modest setback in early trading on Monday before buyer come back in to help continue the bullish momentum and press the market towards my Q1 upside objective of 1.3709.
- Projected Daily Range: .0106
- Projected Weekly Range: .0238
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1399.25.
- The March S&Ps formed their third consecutive VRCB week last week as the market continues to move higher despite peaking stochastic indicators and not experiencing a single ST setback since the beginning of 2013.
- With psychological targets within narrow reach just above 1500, look for the S&Ps to break through that level and find heavy resistance near 1510.
- Projected Daily Range: 12.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 33.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
